UPDATED SUNDAY 23.59: Social Democrats make gains at expense of Centre Party partners in municipal elections; National Coalition conservatives also gain ground, but Greens fail to bring out vote
Turnout rises to 58.6%, but few major shifts in voter behaviour
The Social Democrats and opposition National Coalition Party could both claim victory from Sunday's municipal elections.
With all but a few votes counted, the Social Democrats had leap-frogged over their government colleagues in the Centre Party, taking 24.1% of the vote (+1.1%) to the nearly 23% of the Centrists, who achieved 23.7% in the equivalent poll four years ago.
The moderate conservatives of the National Coalition Party came third in the country as a whole with 21.8% (+0.9%), followed by the Left Alliance with 9.6% (-0.3%).
The evening's other major losers appear to have been the Greens, who failed to bring out their traditionally volatile voters in spite of a slightly higher election turnout of 58.6%. They saw their share of the vote decline from 7.8% to 7.4%.
The rise in voter turnout from the 55.9% achieved in 2000 was broadly welcomed, though it fell short of the 60% that had been hoped for and even predicted by opinion polls before the election.
A more detailed analysis of the results of this election is to be expected tomorrow, but immediate indications are that it was more of a subdued routine affair than an occasion for angry popular protest.
The result did not reflect particularly badly on any of the three parties in the governing coalition, as the Centrists' losses were tolerable and the junior partners, the Swedish People's Party, enjoyed a marginal increase in support from 5.1% to 5.2%. The Social Democrats were of course well pleased with their evening.
By contrast, the only Parliamentary opposition grouping apart from the National Coalition Party to emerge on the plus side were the populist True Finns, who secured 0.9% (+0.2%).
On the local level, the slide in support for the Greens meant that the party was relegated to third place in Helsinki, one of its traditional strongholds.
In the capital, the National Coalition Party held on to their lead, despite a slight erosion of support, and the Social Democrats (who made a gain of 3 seats) clawed their way up into second spot past the Greens (who lost 4 of their 21 seats). Between them, these three parties provide 63 of the 85 City Council members. With just four Helsinki seats, the Centre Party are only a marginal force in the city.
In neighbouring Espoo, the National Coalition Party remained firmly in the driving seat with 38.2% of the votes, while Vantaa continued to be a Social Democrat stronghold - the party took 30.1% here to the 26.6% of the National Coalition.
Regardless of the state of play in the Greater Helsinki area, however, the municipalities in the country as a whole stay solidly in Centre Party hands: many of the smaller communities have absolute Centrist majorities on local councils, to the point where some unlikely and unusual electoral alliances were forged before the election in an attempt to shift the balance.
Voters were selecting councils for 430 municipalities in mainland Finland and 16 in the Åland Islands. An election was simultaneously held for a regional council in Kainuu Province.
Municipal Elections 2004
Results after 99.9% of votes counted (figures in parentheses show change from 2000)
Social Democrats 24.1% (+1.1%-points)
Centre Party 22.8 (-0.9)
National Coalition 21.8 (+0.9)
Left Alliance 9.6 (-0.3)
Greens 7.4 (-0.4)
Swedish People's Party 5.2 (+0.1)
Christian Democrats 4.0 (-0.3)
True Finns 0.9 (+0.2)
Communists 0.5 (-0.1)
Other 3.3 (- 0.7)
FIRST REPORT AT 21.30:
Initial figures from the municipal elections forecast a win for the Social Democrats at the expense of their government coalition partners in the Centre Party. Advance votes are a notoriously fragile platform for such predictions, as they tend to overstate the Centre Party's performance and conversely give the Social Democrats, the conservative National Coalition Party, and the Greens appreciably fewer votes than they get by the end of the counting.
Nevertheless, the fact that the Centre Party and the Social Democrats were neck-and-neck (SDP 24.9%, Centre 24.8%) when the absentee advance ballots were calculated at 8.00 p.m, the time the polling stations closed, is an indicator that Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen’s Centrists will almost certainly lose the 0.7%-point lead they held in 2000. The National Coalition Party, too, can expect by the end of the evening to see a small improvement in their position relative to the 2000 elections.
It is too early at this stage to offer figures for voter turnout, but all signs indicate that the decline in enthusiasm for voting, which saw turnout fall to 56% four years ago, has been corrected, and the night's final figure could approach 60%.
Equally it is perhaps of little value at this juncture to give the relative figures for the main parties as votes are being counted - the first hour or so of vote counting always swells the Centre Party total as small rural communities finish their count first, while the SDP and National Coalition, and particularly the Greens (who are strong in the large cities of the south) see their shares shrink alarmingly.
Municipal Elections 2004
(Note: figures in parentheses are for final results in 2000)
Advance votes:
SDP 24.9% (23.0%)
Centre Party 24.8% (23.8%)
National Coalition Party 21.6% (20.9%)
Left Alliance 10.0% (9.8%)
Greens 5.6% (7.7%)
Swedish People's Party 4.2% (5.1%)
Christian Democrats 4.0% (4.2%)
True Finns 0.7% (0.6%)
Others 3.5% (4.8%)
Shortly after 9 p.m., the Finnish Broadcasting Company (YLE) published their prediction for the final outcome, in which they suggested that the SDP will emerge with 24.2%, ahead of the Centre Party (23.2%), and the National Coalition (21.5%).
Modest losses are forecast for both the Left Alliance and the Greens.
We shall naturally return to the matter later on to see how well the broadcasters' forecasts play out as the evening progresses.
Full results are expected by around 11 p.m.
Helsingin Sanomat
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| 22.10.2004 - TODAY |
 UPDATED SUNDAY 23.59: Social Democrats make gains at expense of Centre Party partners in municipal elections; National Coalition conservatives also gain ground, but Greens fail to bring out vote |
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