Poll: Halonen re-election in first round of 2006 no foregone conclusion
Vanhanen gains support - Halonen still overwhelming favourite in second
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Matti Vanhanen
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Sauli Niinistö
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It no longer appears certain that President Tarja Halonen would win re-election in the first round of next year's Presidential elections.
According to a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, Halonen's public support has declined by six percentage points within the past six months.
The poll indicated that if the Presidential elections were held now, and if Halonen were running for a second term, she would get 53% of the vote in the first round. With a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, Halonen's support appears to be perilously near the critical 50% level.
Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen (Centre) has seen his support rise by eight percentage points in six months, and he would be the most likely candidate to face Halonen in a possible runoff.
However, the poll also found that Halonen would easily beat Vanhanen in the second round 61-34%. Six months ago, the figures for a hypothetical runoff between Halonen and Vanhanen were 68-24%.
If Halonen decided not to run, the poll found that the SDP would lose the Presidency.
If the party's chairman, Speaker of Parliament Paavo Lipponen, were the Social Democratic candidate, he would drop out of the race already in the first round, even though the poll reveals that he would be the second-most popular Social Democrat.
In such a scenario, the candidates in the second round would be the Centre Party's Matti Vanhanen, and the National Coalition Party's Sauli Niinistö. The second round would be won by Vanhanen, 58-36%.
One possible reason for the decline in Halonen's support was that this poll was the first in which respondents were presented with a named candidate for each party. However, the poll also indicated a decline in Halonen's support in the second round - especially if Vanhanen were the opposing candidate.
The popularity of Vanhanen has increased as it has become increasingly likely that he will be the Centre Party's candidate for President.
Sauli Niinistö has not yet indicated whether or not he is interested in running for President.
The poll was conducted in two stages in consecutive weeks.
The first round was a simulation of open primary elections for the six largest parties.
The most popular Social Democratic candidate, if President Halonen were excluded, was Parliamentary Speaker Paavo Lipponen, who had the approval of 33% of the population at large. Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja was an unexpectedly close second, with 28% overall approval.
The most popular Centre Party candidate was Vanhanen, and Niinistö was the most popular for the National Coalition Party. Former Parliamentary Speaker Riitta Uosukainen got the backing of 18% of the public at large as the Presidential candidate of the National Coalition Party.
The favourite candidate for the Left Alliance was party chairwoman Suvi-Anne Siimes, and MP Heidi Hautala was the favourite for the Greens.
After the most popular candidates were established in the first part of the poll, the people were again asked which of them they would vote for in the first and second rounds.
The poll showed that if women had their way, Halonen would win re-election in the first round. If men decided the outcome, a runoff vote would be inevitable.
More than 70% of supporters of both the Green League and the Left Alliance would vote for Halonen in the first round even if their parties had a candidate running.
Halonen's strength in the second round can be explained by the fact that about 30% of supporters of the Centre Party and the National Coalition Party preferred her to Vanhanen or Niinistö in a possible runoff.
Helsingin Sanomat
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| 31.1.2005 - TODAY |
 Poll: Halonen re-election in first round of 2006 no foregone conclusion |
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