Bird flu scenario: Over 1.8 million Finns would catch virus if pandemic breaks out

Health officials map out scenarios

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Finland is preparing for a possible global outbreak of bird flu by stockpiling medicines, ordering vaccines, and drawing up scenarios and plans of action.
      Officials believe that in spite of the precautions, more than one third of Finns - over 1.8 million people - would catch the virus, and that as many as 10,000 people could die in the pandemic.
      In such a situation, a state of emergency would be declared, with restrictions on movement and gatherings. Emergency hospitals would be set up, and distribution of medicines would be regulated.
     
The scenario would be that a new virus would mutate somewhere in the world, resulting in a strain that can spread from person to person, against which humans have not developed a resistance.
      Emergency measures would be enacted when an outbreak occurs somewhere in the world, even if no cases of the disease are diagnosed in Finland. Merja Saarinen, chairwoman of a pandemic preparation working group of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, says that the first measure to be taken would be to assess the vaccine situation. "If there is already a model vaccine, which would give even partial protection against the virus, we would immediately begin mass vaccinations of the whole population against bird flu", Saarinen says. "The goal is for people to have at least partial protection when the virus starts coming here."
      However, the antibody in the vaccine would not have an effect until a few weeks have passed after the jab.
     
Separate flu sections would be set up at Finnish public health clinics, and nursing staff would be given quick training for dealing with the rapidly spreading disease. Personnel would be protected from infection with vaccines and medicines.
      Telephone hotlines and websites would be set up to keep the public informed with a minimum of direct contact. The aim would be for most patients to be treated at home.
      The number of hospital beds would be increased, and non-urgent surgery would be cancelled. All available hospital space and personnel would be allocated for taking care of the flu patients.
      Restrictions would be imposed on travel, and public meetings would be banned.
      Two weeks after the start of the pandemic, the bird flu units of public health clinics would be dealing with hundreds of thousands of patients a week.
      Shortages of respirators, intensive care treatment, and special hospital facilities would emerge, as well as of personnel, as many of the doctors and nurses would also fall ill. Short training programmes would be arranged for new personnel: retired nurses, those who have moved on to other professions, and nursing students would be asked to help in the situation.
     
Anti-viral drugs work only if their use begins before 48 hours have passed from the onset of symptoms.
      The current stockpile of 1.3 million doses would be rapidly depleted. The medicines would have to be rationed, and priority would be given to those in key positions in society.
      Emergency hospitals would be set up in schools that have been closed down. Tent hospitals would serve as a last resort.
      The virus would be expected to spread to the whole country. Gradually, the situation would ease: the worst would be expected to be over in eight weeks.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Finland to take part in EU bird flu drill (8.11.2005)
  Flu medication should not be hoarded, says National Public Health Institute (20.10.2005)
  No precision bird flu vaccine available yet (3.10.2005)
  Finland prepares to vaccinate entire population against avian flu (29.9.2005)
  Finnish companies preparing instructions for staff over bird flu outbreak (12.1.2006)

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