COMMENTARY: Hasty predictions of big changes

By Kari Huhta
     
      Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb repeated a warning on Tuesday against haste in the assessment of the consequences of the war in Georgia, even though the changes are clearly significant, and they need to be reflected in the security policy report that is being drawn up in Finland.
      This is good advice, and Stubb will even have to follow it himself. His role as Chairman-in-Office of the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) genuinely limits his scope to make assessments on the extent to which Russia has adhered to the terms of the peace plan that it signed in Georgia.
      Stubb will need to negotiate with Russia on many occasions, so that the ceasefire in Georgia can be supervised sufficiently with the relatively modest means that the OSCE has available.
     
However, almost nobody else appears to be following Stubb’s advice, especially outside of Finland.
      For instance, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who negotiated on the peace plan on behalf of the EU, said on Tuesday after the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting that Russia had advanced to point one in the peace plan - that is, the ceasefire, but no further than that.
      Kouchner says that the question is whether or not Russia will adhere to the agreements that it has signed.
      It is, perhaps, not a good idea to jump to that conclusion either, even though in the light of unofficial information the situation on Tuesday was still rather poor.
     
There are nevertheless a number of ways to assess the consequences of the war. Here are a few for the initial panic.
      Russia’s relations with both NATO and the EU will become more difficult for a long time. After this, neither of the Western power organisations can give up on their plans to enlarge without appearing completely spineless.
      As relations cool, it will be easier than before for Russia to see the enlargement as an attempt to isolate it, and its opposition to such moves will certainly not decrease.
      Georgia is not the only problem. The military situation in Afghanistan has turned much worse in the past couple of days. The West needs Russia’s help there, and in many other places, but getting it might become more difficult now.
     
And then there is energy, which is currently seen as part of all crises. With Georgia it is a very central basis of action both for the West and for Russia. Georgia offers the only possible way for getting oil from the Caspian Sea to the rest of the world on a route which by-passes Russia.
      If military strength is a continuation of foreign policy for Russia, as National Coalition Party leader Jyrki Katainen said on Tuesday, then we can add the observation that energy policy is part of foreign policy both in Russia and in the West.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Stubb voices optimism over Georgia deal (12.8.20008)
  Finnish and French foreign ministers hold talks with Georgian President (11.8.2008)
  Vanhanen: South Ossetia crisis will affect next national defence report (19.8.2008)
  Georgia: Stubb’s marathon sprint (17.8.2008)
  Politicians: Finnish policy unaffected by Caucasus crisis (13.8.2008)

See also:
  COMMENTARY: The international emergency number is 56-68-79-08 (17.8.2008)