COMMENTARY: The President is like the weekly Lotto numbers

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By Antti Kokkonen
     
      The results of the survey published last Saturday in Helsingin Sanomat clearly reveal what the voters will have in mind when they mull over the Presidential candidates ten weeks from now. The citizens long for a strong President who is demanding towards other political leaders. The people seek an opinion leader who is familiar with and cares about the everyday life of the citizens.
      The Finns, wary and suspicious of the powers-that-be, long for a lord - or alternatively a lady - of lords who would, when necessary, defend the interests of the citizens against both politicians and corporate executives.
      The core item in the President's scope of power, foreign and security policy, does not show up as an important criterion when choosing a President. NATO is a four-letter acronym on a par with ICCL*.
     
What is going on? Have the people not digested the fact that the Finnish President lost a great deal of power in the constitutional reform of 2000?
      Ignorance is not likely to be guiding the wishes and hopes of the citizens.
      The results of the survey rather reflect the current causes of uncertainty. The Finns do not sense a military threat at present. Instead of war, they are worried about their income and welfare.
      The people are frightened by the stories of globalisation, and they fear for their jobs. The neighbour was dismissed today, it may be my turn tomorrow.
      The President would seem to be a last resort for the people, like the weekly numbers you play in the Lotto, something to seek comfort from in an insecure world.
      The candidates are aware of this. Or are they?
     
Of the three largest parties, only the Centre Party has officially named its candidate, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen. The winds of change promised by his campaign have blown with varying force and direction to date. Vanhanen is yet to take strong stands in his campaign.
      Sauli Niinistö, who will be crowned the National Coalition Party's candidate next weekend, already succeeded in causing a commotion by calling himself a President for the working class. The positive side to this is that Niinistö left behind his endless comments on EU security guarantees. In light of the current survey results, the defence of the working class may even appeal to the people, unless it sounds too spurious when voiced by a bank executive.
     
Incumbent Tarja Halonen will not transform into a candidate for another two weeks. The short campaign should work in her favour. Although Halonen's campaign has not officially been launched yet, we have been given a taste of things to come. Halonen's campaign offices have been coloured blue and white, instead of red. The Social Democrats also know how to fish in the waters of others.
      Halonen's popularity ratings have been so high that it is actually best to not do anything. Then you cannot make mistakes.
      The Swedish People's Party's Henrik Lax is the only candidate to date to come boldly out of the NATO closet. His stand in favour of NATO is a challenge for the others. The voters are not interested in this theme, and Lax would in fact need some new spice for his campaign.
      Bjarne Kallis, the Christian Democrat candidate who entered the race a bit against his will, has so far succeeded mainly in annoying the Centre Party by persuading MEP Hannu Takkula (Centre) to join his campaign and speak on behalf of conservative values.
     
The situation of Green candidate Heidi Hautala is not an enviable one, either. Hautala has called for limiting the power of the President even further. The people do not want to listen to something like that.
      Hautala is also burdened by the fact that a large part of the Greens will probably break ranks and back Halonen already in the first round, even if Hautala sings like an angel in her campaign.
      What about the candidate of the True Finns, right-wing populist Timo Soini? He has emphasised that he is the only candidate opposed to the EU. That will hardly carry him far in the elections. Everyday concerns feel more significant than the EU in the booths.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 5.11.2005
     
*ICCL: I Could(n't) Care Less.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Finns want president to show strong leadership and defend everyday security (7.11.2005)

ANTTI KOKKONEN / Helsingin Sanomat
antti.kokkonen@hs.fi