COMMENTARY Three plates, three different opinions

By Jussi Konttinen
     
      In the same way that the EU has struggled to form a common viewpoint on Russia, so the Finnish leadership has had three different ways of approaching the crisis in Georgia and the Caucasus.
      The foreign policy decision-makers - the President, Prime Minister, and Minister for Foreign Affairs - have each given separate statements and at times apparently without consulting one another.
      It has been unclear who exactly is deciding what Finland’s opinion is about the first European war of the new century.
     
The stand on important matters is shaped in the joint meetings of the President and the Cabinet Committee on Foreign and Security Policy.
      According to the government website: “the committee and the President of the Republic meet whenever current business so requires”.
      The first time that such a meeting was called over the Georgian conflict was some two weks ago, at the initiative of President Tarja Halonen.
      At that stage, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen (Centre Party) did not consider it necessary.
      The two parties got together only on Friday of last week, exactly three weeks after the crisis broke.
     
The statement that emerged was much as expected in terms of tone.
      Finland follows a moderate EU middle path.
      It condemns the Russian action, stresses the independence, right of self-determination, and territorial integrity of Georgia, but does not advocate sanctions against Russia, arguing that this would only set in motion a vicious circle of counter-measures.
     
The matters at hand are very large ones from the Finnish perspective.
      The EU should be sufficiently firm and united that Russia would take it seriously.
      Then again, the worst possible alternative from Finland’s point of view would be for relations between the Union and the Russian Federation to become any more tense than they are now.
     
Of the troika of foreign policy leaders, Halonen has been the least in evidence. She has also been the slowest to respond.
      Halonen has justified her lack of pronouncements by referring to the EU’s own principles of quiet diplomacy.
      A member-state does not need to comment separately if it approves of the actions of the current holder of the EU Presidency.
      In addition, Halonen has stated that she wants to give Vanhanen and his Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb (National Coalition Party) “peace and quiet” to get on with the job.
      According to Halonen, contacts between the three of them have been close and active. Halonen takes the view that the statements from the PM and Foreign Minister have been perfectly in synch with the Finnish line.
     
Nevertheless, Halonen’s reticence is strange, given that superpower relations and particularly Russia have been on her side of the foreign policy demarcation lines.
      It is with Halonen specifically that the Russian leaders have kept contact as matters unfolded.
      At the beginning of the crisis, Halonen and the Russian President Dmitri Medvedev spoke twice on the phone. Medvedev notified Halonen in writing three hours before he made his announcement about recognising the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
      The less than vigorous response creates the impression that the Russians' old-fashioned strongarm tactics have left Halonen dazed and confused.
      On the other hand, the President may have wished by her caution to get across a certain measured statesman-like quality.
     
Vanhanen condemned the Russian military operation right off the bat while he was in Beijing for the Olympics.
      His short assessment of the situation was surprisingly clearly-worded.
      In Vanhanen’s comments we can see his role as Finland’s top-level link to the EU.
      Within the Union itself he has nevertheless kept a low profile.
     
In the attempts to disentangle the crisis, Alexander Stubb has been the most prominent face on the screen, because until the end of December he is the serving Chairman-in-Office of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE.
      The OSCE role has, however, rather tied Stubb’s hands in his other capacity as Finland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs. Particularly in the early days of the crisis he chose his words carefully, saying it was not his job to attach blame in any direction, but merely to get a working ceasefire in place, as he remarked in Moscow two weeks ago, after meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.
      Only when talking to a gathered group of Finnish heads of diplomatic missions on Monday last did Stubb take a stronger line and describe the events in Georgia as a turning-point in international relations, saying that “080808 will be a bleak anniversary of new world politics”.
     
The biggest difference among the leadership troika is in how they assess the impact of the crisis on Finnish security policy.
      In Halonen’s view the crisis has not changed Finland’s security situation, nor does it have any specific influence on the foreign and security policy report currently being drafted.
      "Finland’s security policy approach has from the outset taken account of the possibility that there might be armed conflicts in Europe”, Halonen has said.
      According to Vanhanen, meanwhile, the events in Georgia and South Ossetia will force Finland to reconsider some matters in a new light.
      Even though he does not believe the NATO option is a topical one, he does not think there is any reason to compromise on the subject.
     
The most far-reaching conclusions have been drawn by Alexander Stubb. He said directly on Monday that NATO membership should be considered.
      Stubb also criticised the lethargic security policy reaction-time, which is based on reports made routinely every four years.
      The flexibility and regularity of such assesments should be stepped up, argued Stubb.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 31.8.2008


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Georgia: Stubb´s marathon sprint (19.8.2008)
  Stubb NATO comments raise questions (2.9.2008)
  Vanhanen and Stubb criticise Russian military action in Georgia (26.8.2008)
  Vanhanen: South Ossetia crisis will affect next national defence report (19.8.2008)

See also:
  President Halonen told in advance of Russian decision to recognise breakaway areas (27.8.2008)
  Politicians: Finnish policy unaffected by Caucasus crisis (13.8.2008)

Links:
  Government press release: Finland hopes for a common EU position on the crisis in Georgia, 29.8.2008
  Speech by Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb to Finnish heads of mission, 25.8.2008