Centre-right grouping offers only viable majority government in new Parliament
SDP look set for four years in opposition, but Centre Party and NCP talks will be difficult
The only government framework to have anything like a workable majority in the new Parliament is one based around the pairing of the Centre Party and the moderate conservatives of the National Coalition party.
Nevertheless, negotiations between the two will be tricky, as the Centrists argue that the NCP's views in opposition differ dramatically from the former Centre-SDP-Swedish People's Party government programme.
The Centre Party's chairman Matti Vanhanen will meet today with his NCP counterpart Jyrki Katainen and with the SDP leader Eero Heinäluoma.
The 101 seats in the 200-member Parliament held by the Centre-NCP pairing offers an absolute majority, but one of such frailty that it is unlikely to materialise as such.
In forming a government, the aim is generally to gather something like 120 seats in order to safeguard against upsets through unexpected absences or revolt within the ranks.
The stock government minority party the Swedish People's Party gained one seat on Sunday, and could offer nine seats to the cause. Even with this backup, a centre-right coalition would be slightly low on numbers.
The Left Alliance (17), the Greens (15), and the Christian Democrats (7 seats in the new assembly) have all been mentioned as alternatives to the Swedish People's Party or as a fourth party in a larger coalition.
The Left Alliance continued their slow withering process in this election, losing two seats, while the Greens gained one and the Christian Democrats saw no change to their representation in Parliament.
If a centre-right government were to emerge, as seems most likely at present, the Greens or the Christian Democrats might be considered for inclusion.
A combination of the two large non-socialist parties and the Greens would bring 116 seats to the table - a couple more than were enjoyed by the "red-earth" coalition of Centre and SDP plus the Swedes in the outgoing administration from 2003.
A four-way coalition involving both the Swedes and the Christian Democrats as minority partners would offer 117 seats.
Although they had a good night, gaining two seats for a total of five, the nationalist True Finns are not likely to be offered a hand in forming a new government.
In the run-up to the election the Centre Party and SDP had been assumed to continue their collaboration, if only the result from the electorate would permit this.
However, it has generally been considered prudent that the two large members of a government coalition ought to be able to muster a majority - albeit a narrow one - between them, in order to safeguard against a third partner playing both sides against the middle and thereby winning more power than its size warrants.
After Sunday, any speculative centre-left coalition would of necessity require at least one minority assistant, which would have to be of the size of the Greens or the Left Alliance. The Centre Party and the Social Democrats lost 12 seats between them at this election, and can put together only 96 MPs.
Equally, the red-blue combination of National Coalition Party and SDP - familiar from the governments of Paavo Lipponen from 1995-2003 - would only have 95 seats.
The SDP leader Eero Heinäluoma is not thought to be overly anxious to govern with the conservatives, and given the election result, such negotiations are in any case unlikely to take wing.
The SDP hope going into the poll was for a continuation of the past four years, but with the Social Democrats moving into the driving seat. As it turned out, the SDP would now be an appreciably weaker partner for the centrists than in 2003.
In any event, the decision on where to go next rests with Prime Minister and Centre Party leader Matti Vanhanen.
Despite the best efforts of the NCP, the Centre Party narrowly clung on to the status of largest party in the country. As Vanhanen put it himself in a sporting metaphor, "the time wasn't as good, but the colour of the medal remained the same". Hence when the representatives of the parliamentary groups convene on March 29th to start government negotiations, the reins will be given to Vanhanen.
In the weeks prior to the election, Vanhanen's name was also very prominent in polls on whom the country would like to see as the next PM. By scraping in as the largest party, the Centre Party may have done enough to ensure this comes to pass.
Helsingin Sanomat
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| 19.3.2007 - TODAY |
 Centre-right grouping offers only viable majority government in new Parliament
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