Challenger Niinistö castigates, criticises, and chides

COMMENTARY

Sauli Niinistö

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By Antti Kokkonen
     
      Presidential candidate Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party, cons.) reproaches Paavo Lipponen over the recent dispute on a constitutional amendment. Niinistö attacks fellow-candidate Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen (Centre Party) and the incumbent Tarja Halonen [who is also seeking a new term in the President's Palace as the candidate of the Social Democrats and the Left Alliance]. Niinistö criticises his competitors for lack of spine.
      The selections are all taken from news items of the past couple of weeks.
      Who is this man, who is soundly whipping the cream of the Republic?
     
Nobody should be in any doubt by now as to what candidate Niinistö's campaign strategy is all about. It is worth throwing down a challenge. It is particularly fruitful to challenge the sitting President and in so doing profile oneself as the only real alternative. Vanhanen, hamstrung by his obligation to co-exist with Halonen before the election and most probably also after it, is in no position to play the role of feisty challenger.
      In addition to challenges, it is worth lobbing critical brickbats. It is particularly fruitful to lob them at Vanhanen. Challenging Vanhanen is not such a productive exercise, for then the Prime Minister gains undesirable exposure in responding to the challenges.
      Even Niinistö's long-time partner in the last two coalition governments, former Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen, is a good target for smart chide-missiles. Among other things, Niinistö charges that in the constituional debate, Lipponen - now the Speaker of Parliament - was asleep at the Parliamentary wheel.
      There is no gainsaying the effectiveness of Niinistö's approach. There have been results, and the gap to Halonen has grown narrower at the same time as Vanhanen has slipped behind in the Helsingin Sanomat Gallup published on December 5th.
     
The power of challenging has been empirically observed not just in opinion-poll ratings but also in elections.
      In the latest municipal elections Lipponen challenged the National Coalition Party Chairman Jyrki Katainen in a TV debate on the subject of privatisation of communal services, Katainen took up the challenge, and Vanhanen was left on the sidelines to watch. Lipponen and Katainen both prospered in the elections, while Vanhanen did not.
      The phenomenon was even more unmistakably in evidence at the last Parliamentary election in 2003. The then National Coalition Party Chairman Ville Itälä merely looked on, when Lipponen and the then Centre Party leader Anneli Jäätteenmäki went at it hammer and tongs over Iraq. Itälä lost the election.
     
Of course, the winning of an election is not quite that straightforward. The path chosen by Niinistö has its own risks.
      There is a point at which the public starts to regard as slightly repugnant the Besserwisser who is slagging everyone else off. This point is perhaps only discovered after it has been crossed.
      There is also even a risk present in the fact that everything goes perfectly according to plan: that Vanhanen gets left behind in the first round of voting, and that Halonen tumbles in the second round.
      How then would President Niinistö direct the country's foreign policy in cooperation with Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen?
      The President would begin to build a common European defence. The Prime Minister would snort at this and would continue to trust in transatlantic cooperation. Abroad, people would wonder what exactly Finland's line is on the subject.
     
In this imaginary situation, one that seems rather unlikely in the light of the present poll numbers, perhaps Niinistö should resort to the old political custom. Before an election one can happily be of one opinion, and after it of a different one. Taking power requires different means from exercising it.
      The voters do not as a rule file a claim on consumer protection grounds, even if President Halonen might have wished for it at some time during the election struggle.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 10.12.2005
     
The writer heads the Political Desk of Helsingin Sanomat


Previously in HS International Edition:
  HS Gallup: Halonen slips, Niinistö and Vanhanen gain slightly (5.12.2005)

ANTTI KOKKONEN / Helsingin Sanomat
antti.kokkonen@hs.fi