Climate change brings mild and rainy winter weather - and it is here to stay

This year January in Helsinki was 4.8°C warmer than usual

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Pupils in Southern Finland are starting their skiing holidays under exceptional circumstances. While some Alpine skiing slopes are open in the neighbourhood, good snowy tracks for cross-country skiing really need to be searched for, and even frosts are just a transient phenomenon in the south.
      As a result of climate change, one has to go farther and farther every year in order to find enough snow.
      First the ski resorts in Northern Finland are benefiting from global warming, but in the future they will not be able to depend on snowy conditions, either, not even in the depths of winter.
     
Grey winter days will become common, and the Finnish weather will be more and more like that in Denmark or Belgium. We will have to get accustomed to a winter that is more or less like an overlong November.
      In January, the mean temperature in Helsinki was 0.6°C, which is 4.8 degrees higher than the average for the period from 1971 to 2000.
      According to the February forecast by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the weather will continue being clearly warmer than average. Long sub-zero periods will be unlikely, particularly in the southern parts of the country. The temperatures will be ranging from below 0°C to some degrees above zero.
     
On the winter holiday week, the Greater Helsinki area used to have so much snow that ski-track machines were able to make fairly good ski tracks. Today such machines are of no use, and lie idle.
      The previous skiing holiday with plenty of snow was experienced in 2005, when a snow cover of 40 centimetres was measured at the Helsinki-Vantaa weather station. A year ago, the snow cover was just five centimetres thick.
     
The number of snowy months is predicted to shorten by one and a half or even by two months a year, particularly around the beginning and the end of the winter.
      Heavy rains and floods will increase instead. While it is normal that Finnish climate is diverse, extreme phenomena are likely to increase in the future. Between mild periods wintry conditions are also possible.
      Because of the vicinity of the sea, the temperatures in Helsinki are already now higher than those for example in Kerava. Heat is stored primarily in the sea, and the surface temperature in the Gulf of Finland has also risen by 0.5 to 0.8 degrees over 50 years. Needless to say, ice on the Gulf of Finland close to Helsinki is conspicuous by its absence.
      In a hundred years, the temperatures are predicted bo be at least a couple of degrees higher than at present, which would further deteriorate the state of the already eutrophied Baltic.
     
Climate change will affect the entire natural scene, which already now shows some signs of change. For example a pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), which is a migratory bird, wintering mainly in Africa, was detected in Helsinki’s district of Puistola in January.
      The species of Southern Finland are moving to the north, and a transition of 19 kilometres lasts 12 years. In the future, the Wigeon (Anas penelope), today nesting even in Helsinki, will be found only in Lapland.
      Even plants will have to adapt themselves to the climate or face a sticky end. Only those species will survive which tolerate utmost dryness or dampness. While heat stimulates growth, occasional hard frosts and the increased danger of frosts in early spring are bound to cause problems.
     
The good thing is that it will be possible to cultivate pear and plum trees widely in Southern Finland, while the harvests of domestic apple trees can be enjoyed as late as in February.
     
Particularly oak trees and other hardwood trees could benefit from climate change, while it is likely that for example spruce will have to give way to pine and birch.
      On the other hand, some experts in Helsinki fear that even new pests and weeds are already lurking behind the southern border of the country, waiting for suitable winds to blow them across the sea.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Willow catkins already in bloom in Vantaa (14.1.2008)
  Finnish average temperature likely to rise by 4 - 7 degrees this century (10.11.2004)
  WWF: Climatic change could radically reduce Finland´s biodiversity (31.8.2000)
  Ice-free coastal waters in February considered exceptional, even in Southern Finland (13.2.2008)

Links:
  The Finnish Meteorological Institute

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