Climate change: two degrees to disaster
Former optimist is worried now
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By Tuomas Kaseva
“Anything at all.”
That is all that Professor Markku Kulmala will say when asked to predict the consequences of climate change.
In the 1990s Kulmala was characterised as an optimist on climate change, but now he has a different tone. He says that far too much time has been wasted.
It is likely that the assessments will only get worse. For a long time it was predicted that temperatures would rise between two and six degrees Celsius by 2100. Now there is talk of a two-degree rise already by 2025.
“A couple of degrees could mean just about anything in Finland and in the world”, Kulmala says. “We’re riding straight toward a wall in first class.”
The thought is certainly quite disconcerting.
“But not disconcerting enough”, Kulmala continues. “It is only when people feel worried enough that a change will happen, and people will be willing to give up something.”
True. Perhaps one measure will be the day when Kulmala, an enthusiastic motorist, starts riding his bicycle to the gym.
Markku Kulmala is not a familiar name to the public at large, but in the field of aerosol and environmental physics, he is internationally known and recognised. At home in Aurinkolahti in Helsinki, he has all kinds of plaques on his wall.
Kulmala works at the Department of Physics at the University of Helsinki. His main job is to direct the unit at the department which investigates the physics, chemistry and biology of climate change - one of the leading groups in the field.
The subjects of research of the unit are all linked with climate change in one way or another. The interest of the director is focussed on how macromolecules are born in the atmosphere.
There has been a leap forward in the study! A couple of weeks ago a new formula took shape in Kulmala’s mind, which can describe the process. A week later, while waiting for a concert where his daughter Meri was to perform, he wrote the formula down in the concert programme.
“We’ll get an article about this in Nature or Science”, Kulmala says. “There is no point in talking about things like this in a 50th birthday interview.”
Kulmala’s previous optimism with respect to climate change was based on the view of regenerative coupling. He also assumed that the Kyoto Treaty would be the start of a positive series of developments, “but instead, emissions have grown more than anyone could have imagined”.
Something nevertheless can be done, even though “it looks grim”. All means need to be taken into use: reducing consumption, improving technology, utilising solar energy, increasing the proportion of nuclear energy...
Kulmala says that in the midst of it all, he started to think where the limits of greed might lie. Even in Finland many are thinking that climate change could even benefit us. Others think that issue should be taken with the actions of the growing economies of China, India, and others.
“But we certainly cannot tell anyone, that you must not strive for this kind of a life that we have”, Kulmala says with irritation.
“I have also thought if life really was so much worse 20 years ago, that we could not return to it. A way to get rid of the distress is to get over this greed.”
Kulmala got into climate issues at University in the 1980s. He studied different sectors of physics, and ended up in the study of microparticles.
The research inspired him, and gradually it took up more and more of his time. Chernobyl exploded, which produced more interesting research topics.
Kulmala says that during 15 years he worked so hard that he neglected his family.
In 1998 his wife Marita raised the topic of his family. Kulmala admitted that debris was all that was left of his family, and that his own strength had weakened. He also spoke of his new relationship.
Kulmala talks about the matter without any evasion. He has nothing to be ashamed of, just something to teach. And the matter is something that everybody knows about, as Kulmala gave an interview about it at a marriage camp last summer, which became front-page tabloid news.
In his spare time, Kulmala organises marriage camps along with the Helsinki YMCA. The camp was the salvation of his own marriage, and Kulmala feels that it is his obligation to continue the work.
“We remind people about the priorities of life, and about the importance of common time, forgiveness, and that marriage is not a competition.”
Then he gives a little snort.
“And this is linked with climate change in that two people who live apart produce more emissions than they would as a couple.”
When Kulmala went to school in Forssa in the 1960s, climate issues were not even mentioned in class. However, at home, his mother encouraged him to write in his booklet information about minimum and maximum temperatures.
Kulmala has not pushed climate information on his own children. However, he says that even in the midst of all of his work that he has been interested in their lives.
“I have been heavily involved in parents’ activities. The number of fathers there has declined significantly. I guess work predominates, which is a bit sad as well”, Kulmala ponders.
“Now I dare say that people should dedicate a moderate amount of time to their work. The greatest problem with Finnish science is that people work too hard. There should be time for a breather as well.”
Kulmala says that he also reminds his colleagues to devote time to their families, and that the time can also enrich their work.
“For myself, my children and grandchildren are the human factor, for which I do this job. They are the fundamental reason why no stone must be left unturned in research into climate change.”
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 29.10.2008
TUOMAS KASEVA / Helsingin Sanomat
tuomas.kaseva@hs.fi
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| 4.11.2008 - THIS WEEK |
 Climate change: two degrees to disaster |
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