Diplomatic confessions

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By Kari Huhta and Tanja Vasama
     
      "I will not crouch into hushing things up, or slip into liturgy", one ambassador wrote at the beginning of his two pages of text - quoting the words of Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb (Nat. Coalition Party).
      Then the ambassador made a number of observations about Finland’s eastern neighbour.
      "Russia can never earn the trust of its neighbours unless it produces an honest accounting of its past."
      The ambassador continued that Russia does not pay heed to rules that had been agreed upon jointly with others. It yearns for the 19th century, while the EU is living in the 21st. It is building a fence and is protecting its security on both sides of that fence. When China started its Summer Olympics on August the 8th, Russia attacked Georgia.
      "China invited the world for a visit, and Russia showed the world its middle finger."
     
Fairly straightforward language. But that would seem to be what Foreign Minister Stubb was expecting when, after the war in Georgia, he asked Finnish ambassadors for two pages of assessments on the situation in the world.
      A total of 64 ambassadors submitted their assessments. Helsingin Sanomat was able to see just over a third of them.
      The Foreign Ministry insists that the texts, which were given to Helsingin Sanomat without disclosure of which diplomats had written them, are a representative sample of the views expressed.
      There was some vagueness and banality. Sometimes diplomacy has been defined as men in pinstripe suits expressing even the most negative views in a subtle and discreet manner, and in French, if possible. Dung in a silk stocking, as Napoleon once said.
      But there is no lack of straight talk in the ambassadors’ texts - and there were even a few notable deviations from Finland’s official foreign policy doctrines.
     
A certain tendency toward freer expression is understandable. Stubb himself set the tone at a meeting of ambassadors in late August. His speech was like a cluster bomb. He questioned the UN system, denounced security policy reports, and likened the foreign policy leadership to an automatic statement-issuing machine.
      In his speech Stubb had said that the first day of the war in Georgia, August 8th, 2008, or “080808", would be a turning point in international politics. The task of the ambassadors was to assess the world from that angle.
     
Russia:
      When the ambassadors got back to where they are stationed, the adrenaline began to recede.
      In most assessments, 080808 is seen as an important date, and as a wakeup call in international politics at the very least, which is what Stubb himself called it.
      But was 080808 a turning point? One ambassador was somewhat vague in his answer.
      "It both was, and it wasn’t."
      The assessments of many ambassadors about the significance of 080808 are linked directly with their assessments of Russia.
      "If ever, Russia is now a major foreign policy challenge for the West."
     
The ambassadors are unanimous on many matters: Russia has grown stronger, and therefore, can strive for its goals through new means. Cooperation with it is based on common interests, and not any more on common values, such as democracy.
      But how aggressive is Russia?
      "Russia’s political leaders have concluded that they have sufficient political, military and economic skills to solve issues that they consider a problem, using weapons, if necessary".
      "[Russia] finds it convenient to boost its position at home and internationally, by bullying small neighbours."
      But on the other hand:
      "Mutual dependence on the world market and in investments will push Russia back to the community at some point."
     
The Foreign Minister himself got some very straightforward feedback over his expressions of surprise at Russia’s use of weapons.
      "To those for whom this came as a surprise, one might recommend studying history."
      Only in one assessment was Russia seen to become so strong that Europe would need to ally itself with it against the United States. The ambassador who put this forward said that to do this, all Europe would need to do is to compromise on its traditional values, such as democracy.
      "Russia nevertheless needs a partner, and the EU is the only appropriate one among those available. Tightening cooperation with the EU would serve Russia’s interests, in that it would weaken NATO, and as a consequence, will further diminish the foothold of the USA in Europe."
      According to the assessments of other ambassadors, Russia is not quite that strong, and the United States is not quite that weak. Those waiting for upheavals are warned.
      "Russia is simply not up to challenging the superpower position of the United States."
     
The United States:
      In early September the international financial crisis intensified, taking the attention of the ambassadors in a new direction.
      "The uniquely steep slide of the US financial world can be seen as an exclamation point in world politics on a par with 080808."
      According to the ambassadors, the United States remains overwhelming in military strength, economics, and top-level international research.
      In the few assessments that mention the financial crisis, the possibilities of the United States to weather it are considered, perhaps surprisingly, quite good.
      "Is the US financial crisis a milestone on the way to the reduction of the country’s economic power, or the beginning of a real cleansing, clearing the way to new competitiveness, as was experienced in the Nordic Countries in the 1990s?"
      Some also examined the United States in light of the starting point of their homework assignment - the war in Georgia.
      "For the United States the war in Georgia underscored the limits and weakness of its current political influence."
      In the view of the Finnish ambassadors, it is not exclusively a bad thing that the United States recognises the limits of its power. This offers Europe other options than getting closer with Russia.
      "As far as I can tell, the stronger the relationship that the United States has with Europe, the stronger its position is in the world."
     
Europe:
      Most of the assessments consider the development of the role of Europe and specifically that of the EU. It may come as no surprise that the ambassadors of Finland are overwhelmingly very pro-European. Slightly more surprising is that a pinch of idealism can be found alongside hard-boiled power politics.
      "It is important that Finland and the EU should promote values that are important for us on the global level - values such as democracy, human rights, the rule of law, and good governance."
      There were few detailed proposals for advancing the position of Europe. The new EU treaty, which foundered with the referendum in Ireland, is mentioned only twice. When EU enlargement is mentioned, it is mostly supported. Nobody proposed Georgian membership in the EU.
      After the war in Georgia, one ambassador feels that attention should be moved eastward from the Balkans - particularly to Ukraine.
      "The slipping of Ukraine into the sphere of influence of Russia would be a geopolitical disaster for the EU and the whole West."
      One ambassador wrote the word "energy" at the top of the paper. Europe is increasingly dependent on energy from Russia, and in Georgia, Russia showed how easy it would be to cut off the important pipelines to the west as well. Russia has already used the energy weapon in its foreign policy, when the state-owned company Gazprom turned off the taps to its pro-Western neighbour Ukraine for some time.
      "Europe has been watching the actions of Russia in a state of paralysis, and has taken hardly any concrete action in the matter."
      There are no easy solutions. One ambassador is offering gas imports from Iran and Northern Iraq.
      Even that would not solve the problems of the West.
      "The energy question is the mega-trend of the coming years and decades: energy resources are partly, and oil is completely located in countries that are problematic."
     
The global political situation:
      In the view of the ambassadors, no new cold war is on the horizon, but there is, perhaps, a “cool peace”.
      So what is the big picture of international politics in the view of the Finnish ambassadors?
      In quite a few assessments the key words are “unipolar” and “multipolar”.
      “Unipolar” became quite a fashionable term in the 1990s, after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
      The term refers to the United States as the world’s only superpower. The notion of unipolarity has given way to another fashionable word: “multipolar”.
      "Talking about the disappearance of unipolarity and the advance of multipolarity seems to be more part of the rhetoric of the Cold War and the decade that followed. Now the correct term would seem to be globalisation, after all."
      In any case, the leading position of the USA as the world police force is weakening gradually, according to some assessments. China, India, and Brazil have become economic powers, even though they stay quiet in global politics.
      “China, Russia, and India will have to wait for a post-American world for a long time still."
     
Large brush strokes are fairly uniform among these professionals of international politics. They also carry few surprises. There are more differences when the ambassadors think of ways to keep the system under control. Is the international community, and above all, the UN any good any more?
      Stubb already predicted that they would be overrun by history.
      The ambassadors are more cautious. Some hope that the UN in particular will grow stronger, but there are also those who agree with Stubb.
      "The question is, if there is any point in even trying to strengthen a system based on the present institutions, now that its foundations have been broken."
      Nuclear weapons were seen by a few ambassadors as one of the biggest threats to security in the coming years - especially the Iranian nuclear programme and the prospect of a possible clash between Israel and Iran. The war on terror recedes into the background.
      A great confrontation between Islam and the West, a collision of cultures, did not come about after all, although there were fears of this after the terror attacks in New York.
      Idealism emphasising the problems of poverty and inequality, the environment and the climate, is out in the wake of the adrenaline rush raised by power politics - at least on the basis of the 23 assessments seen by Helsingin Sanomat. A lone voice is the solitary ambassador who calls for increasing funding for development cooperation.
      "The victory march of the global megatrends that emerged after the end of the Cold War - democracy, human rights, the market economy, the rule of law, and good governance - toward a single unified and secure world leaning on the same values and principlles, proved to be an unwarranted dream."
      And in the age of the new power politics, uncertainty and confusion are only increasing.
      "The world is not being divided up. Instead it is splitting apart."
     
Finland:
      Foreign Minister Stubb asked for assessments about global politics. Quite a few ignored what challenges Finland faces.
      Still, there is material in the texts that one might not imagine hearing from ambassadors when they are speaking on the record, in their own name. In such cases, the subject is usually Russia.
      "Finland’s list of chores in foreign and security policy calls for a review. The direction of the review is the east. Russians are Finland’s largest minority. Already at present there are as many of them as there are residents in the Åland Islands, who count as Finns. These kinds of visions for development are reminders of events in Georgia, and of the fact that Russia is a very different country."
     
In the opinion of one ambassador, Finland does not have a special relationship with Russia in the age of the EU. A couple of them say that Finland is safe from Russia, contrary to what is the case with the more southerly neighbours of the Eastern Bear. One characterises the war in Georgia primarily as a “healthy reminder” of the fact that we have a neighbour that uses weapons as an extension of its politics.
      One ambassador actually tweaks Minister Stubb and other foreign policy leaders between the lines. It seems that the partially divergent statements on Georgia by the President, the Prime Minister, and the Foreign Minister seem to have left a need for some explaining to do around the world.
      "It would be important to see foreign relations as a whole, and to organise foreign policy decision-making in such a way that no uncertainty emerges about Finland’s policy line."
     
Opinions about NATO are divided. Some of the ambassadors agree with Stubb.
      "There is no reason in sight, why Finland should not join NATO, but not quite yet."
      One writer would even like to recruit the school system to soften up the public on the matter. Two suspect that NATO might not be able to give Finland traditional military aid, although it would provide a nuclear deterrent. The pondering is not new, it is simply more topical, thanks to the Georgia crisis.
      Remaining silent about Finland’s NATO option also constitutes taking a stand of sorts.
      Stubb does not speak in hushed voices, nor do all of his subordinates.
      One ambassador was concluding the letter: one more thing had to be told to the boss. Finland needs to reduce its energy dependence on Russia.
      "It should be done by degrees and quietly, not in a demonstrative matter by waving the threat of Russia under people’s noses. But it should definitely be done. The US Marines have a motto: 'If you grab them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow'.The Russians probably know it, too."
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 5,10.2008


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Vanhanen and Stubb criticise Russian military action in Georgia (26.8.2008)
  Finnish and French foreign ministers hold talks with Georgian President (11.8.2008)
  Parliament fails to snare Foreign Minister Stubb over NATO comments (11.9.2008)
  Stubb NATO comments raise questions (2.9.2008)

KARI HUHTA AND TANJA VASAMA / Helsingin Sanomat
kari.huhta@hs.fi, tanja.vasama@hs.fi