EDITORIAL: Durban gave hope for a new treaty

print this

There are good reasons for a variety of opinions on achievements of the climate conference in Durban, which stretched out somewhat.
      Environmental organisations are upset that nothing was decided that would have been actually binding. All the time the fear grows that there will not be enough time to sufficiently restrict emissions of greenhouse gases to effectively slow the warming of the atmosphere.
      Optimists, including Finland’s Minister of the Environment Ville Niinistö (Green), see a great opportunity in the Durban declaration: it says that by 2015 a treaty needs to be negotiated in which all countries of the world commit themselves to cutting their emissions. The treaty would take effect by 2020.
     
The goal is good and quite ambitious. However, one significant matter was not decided in Durban. The great powers, which have been bickering with each other, did not reach any kind of agreement on how substantive the goals of the emission cuts should be.
      Negotiators working on a new agreement will find themselves in a tight spot, as there are big differences in opinion on how great the emission cuts should be. The most recent research indicates that present emission cuts are not sufficient to keep the warming of the atmosphere to the two degrees Celsius that has been set as a target.
      The next climate report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is due out in 2014. It is expected to bring out information according to which the upper limit set for warming has been exceeded considerably. Experts believe that instead of two degrees Celsius, the climate is warming by as much as 3.5 degrees.
     
One concrete breakthrough at the Durban conference was the decision to extend what is currently the only existing climate treaty – the Kyoto Protocol. The problem with the Kyoto treaty is that it covers only about 15 per cent of the world’s emissions. Big polluters, such as Russia, Japan, and Canada did not agree to stick to the Kyoto Protocol, which has been extended to 2017.
      Simply extending the Kyoto agreement was an achievement, even though its value is hard to measure. When the Kyoto Protocol was approved 20 years ago, the world was much different from what it is now. Some developing countries have taken steps forward in industrialisation, and their emissions have grown considerably from the level where they were 20 years ago.
      Also agreed upon in Durban was that the developing countries should report on their emissions and their reduction by 2014. However, the problem is, how reliable the reports can be, considering that no means to measure emissions that are binding to all have been approved.
     
The developing countries were the biggest losers in Durban. The more a binding treaty on emission limits is postponed, the worse the harm inflicted on developing countries by climate change will become – especially small island countries.
      With good reason, China also expressed its frustration with the slow progress of the negotiations. According to China’s main negotiator, China has done much in the past 20 years to curb emissions.
      The Chinese would like something similar from the rest of the world – especially from those large countries that opted out of the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol.
     
The role of the EU at the climate conference was important. EU negotiators set as a condition for the second phase of Kyoto that the negotiation and implementation schedules of the treaty should be agreed upon at the same time.
      A sufficient number of participating countries backed the demand, including more than 90 of the least developed countries, as well as Brazil and South Africa. A large number of other countries in the Kyoto treaty also joined the call for a schedule.
     
At next year’s climate meeting in Qatar the aim is to reach agreement on a number of issues, including the financing of the climate fund. The fund already exists, but funding it remains largely open.
      Last year in Cancún rich Western countries promised to increase their aid to the developing countries to EUR 100 million a year by 2020.
     
The Durban conference was certainly not in vain, even though no actual tightening of limits on emissions were achieved.
      Drawing up a treaty that is binding to all countries in three years is a massive task, but some kind of a promise for that came in Durban.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 13.12.2011


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Copenhagen Climate Conference: Finland promises to support women in poor countries (18.12.2009)

See also:
  Finnish men unwilling to reduce climate change through personal choices (20.9.2910)
  Rising temperatures could boost populations of harmful insects (12.8.2010)

Helsingin Sanomat