EDITORIAL: National Coalition make history by overtaking SDP and Centre

print this

The traditionally very even competition between the three big parties for the title of largest party in the country ended in Sunday's municipal elections in a first-ever win for the moderate conservatives of the National Coalition Party.
      The auguries were good in last year's Parliamentary election, when the NCP under Jyrki Katainen put the Social Democrats behind them into third place and took a seat in the present coalition government.
      Now the National Coalition's upward trend continued, and the party managed to forge past its government partners in the Centre Party, who suffered a resounding defeat on the night.
     
For the Centre and for its chairman, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen, finishing third in this three-horse race was a major blow.
      Naturally the results of the municipal elections do not have a direct relevance to cabinet matters. Matti Vanhanen's government sits in power as solidly today as it did before the elections.
     
And yet the outcome of the voting does have a significance on the general political plane.
      The Centre Party's latest defeat at the polls will almost certainly be seen as down to government responsibility in general and to Vanhanen himself on the personal level.
      A tired-looking Vanhanen has not been able to exploit his position as Prime Minister, but rather during his term as party leader and PM the party has suffered one setback after another.
      In Lapland and particularly in Kemijärvi, scene of recent mill closures, the Centre's support more or less imploded at these elections, when normally staunch supporters stayed at home in large numbers in protest against the government's actions, or more pertinently their lack of action.
      The changing of a party leader who is also Prime Minister would of course be unheardof if it were to happen against his will.
      Nevertheless, after this the Centre Party will not be able to prevent discussion of the subject springing up. Inevitably there will be new pressures rising to the surface within the party.
     
For the Social Democrat chairman Jutta Urpilainen, these elections were a baptism of fire that she faced at relatively short notice, only some months after taking over the party helm.
      In the wake of the party's catastrophic showing in the 2007 Parliament elections, the SDP had not managed to get itself back onto an upward trajectory in the opinion polls, and Urpilainen's personal credibility had not been particularly convincing.
      Hence taking second place ahead of the Centre Party in the municipal elections was a kind of defensive victory for the party and a relief for Urpilainen herself.
     
This notwithstanding, the facts are that the SDP's support fell appreciably from the previous municipal elections of 2004 and reached only the level of the 21.4% achieved in last year's Parliamentary election debacle.
      Since that was among the lowest moments in the party's history, it is altogether premature to speak of a new rise in their fortunes.
     
The National Coalition Party's election win was ultimately quite convincing, as they put a couple of percentage-points of clear water between themselves and their main rivals.
      As it happened, the gap to the Centre Party became surprisingly wide, a fact explained by the sudden erosion of Centre Party support in many other areas of the country besides Lapland.
     
The biggest winners on the night, at least if one compares with the situation four years ago, were the populist True Finns under their leader Timo Soini. Soini, standing in Espoo, came close to becoming the largest vote-catcher in the entire country.
      Relative to the situation in 2004, the True Finns' support surged from less than 1% to more than 5%, albeit that the progress from last year's Parliamentary election was more modest.
      The political significance of the win by the populists is multiplied by the fact that the True Finns swept past the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats in order of size.
      The party's strongest support is found in the Greater Helsinki area.
      The Greens also made gains, and overtook the Left Alliance to become the fourth-largest party in the country.
     
The welcome increase in voter turnout in these elections, carrying the numbers back over 60%, may be connected with the fact that the True Finns brought out some new voters.
      Another factor behind the increased interest from the electorate was undoubtedly the dozens of municipal mergers that will come into effect from the beginning of next year.
      Voters in small communities being fused into larger units were keen to see their own representatives getting a seat on the new expanded councils.
     
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 27.10.2008
     


Previously in HS International Edition:
  MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS, SUNDAY 23:45: National Coalition Party largest party, True Finns big winners, gains for Greens (26.10.2008)
  Latest election poll shows National Coalition pulling away from closest rivals (24.10.2008)

Helsingin Sanomat