EDITORIAL: Niinistö’s big lead

Sauli Niinistö

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Former Speaker of Parliament Sauli Niinistö (Nat. Coalition Party), 63, remains the overwhelmingly most popular candidate to be the next president. According to a fresh poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat, Niinistö would win 49 per cent of the vote in the first round. This would mean that he would nearly be elected in the first round of voting if the elections were held now.
      However, it is nearly six months to the elections. Recent political history indicates that especially in advance of presidential elections, fluctuations in support can be rapid and with big numbers. Hence Niinistö’s supporters cannot be certain of victory.
      For the poll, TNS Gallup interviewed nearly 1,000 Finns after mid-August. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction.
     
Naturally, support for Niinistö is highest among supporters of the National Coalition Party, but he also enjoys strong support throughout the whole political spectrum. Niinistö is the most popular candidate among supporters of all parties except those of the Social Democrats. Among SDP supporters, former Speaker Paavo Lipponen (SDP), 70, enjoys a slight lead over Niinistö.
      Niinistö has also managed to boost his support from what it was a year ago. In a Helsingin Sanomat Gallup poll taken in July 2010, he then had the support of 43 per cent of voters.
     
Lipponen, who is seeking - and will most likely get - the nomination of the SDP, will enter the race far behind Niinistö. With the support of nine per cent of the electorate, he was in second place in the Helsingin Sanomat Gallup poll. This would on the face of it take Lipponen into the second round of the vote.
      However, Lipponen still has a hard road ahead of him if he is to become the resident of Mäntynieimi.
      According to the poll numbers, Niinistö would crush him in the second round by a margin of 70 per cent to 18 - and 12 per cent of respondents did not yet want to give a preference.
     
Lipponen has serious problems both among supporters of his own party and those of others. Lipponen would get slightly more support from SDP supporters than the former National Coalition Party leader, but supporters of the True Finns, the Centre Party, and the Greens prefer Niinistö over Lipponen.
      Lipponen would lose to Niinistö even among supporters of the Left Alliance. Even the workers back Niinistö in significantly greater numbers than the candidates of the traditional workers’ movement. Niinistö’s support is lowest among the unemployed.
      If he is to win the elections, Lipponen must convince supporters of both the left and the centrist opposition to back him. As the campaign continues, the left might become interested in his candidacy, but the marketing of Lipponen might not necessarily impress anyone else, even with the help of the best advertising men and women.
     
If Lipponen is facing a difficult election battle, the situation of Timo Soini of the (True) Finns is also difficult, considering the popularity of his party.
      He would get only six per cent of the vote in the first round. Soini has not yet announced his candidacy, a fact which might also be reflected in his polling numbers.
      Niinistö is clearly more popular among supporters of the (True) Finns than Soini is. Even among his own, the feeling is that there is very little in Soini that is of presidential quality.
      However, the eurozone debt crisis could favour Soini, the most euro-critical of all of the candidates.
     
For supporters of the Centre Party, which is franctically looking for a candidate, there is one above all others: MEP Anneli Jäätteenmäki, 56*.
      Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn (Centre) (46), is more popular than Jäätteenmäki among the whole population, but for the Centre Party supporters, Jäätteenmäki is number one.
      Rehn turned down the candidacy while the survey was being conducted, which might be reflected in the outcome.
      If the Centre Party leadership manages to persuade Jäätteenmäki to run, she would enter the race far behind Niinistö, but very close to Lipponen, and alongside Soini.
      That would not be a bad starting point, in light of the troubles that the Centre Party has been facing recently.
     
Dr. Paavo Väyrynen, 65, who is aching to get the Centre Party’s nomination, appears to have a very hard road ahead of him.
      His popularity is weak even in the Centre Party itself.
      If Jäätteenmäki joins the ranks of those refusing to run, Väyrynen may end up being the last resort candidate. That would naturally be a poor starting point for someone wanting to get a good result.
     
Of the other candidates, the Greens’ Pekka Haavisto, 53, is entering the election campaign as the candidate of a small party from a good starting point, with five per cent support.
      Haavisto is the third-most popular among women, right after Niinistö and Lipponen.
      Paavo Arhinmäki, 34, of the Left Alliance, also has the support of five per cent. Arhinmäki is especially popular among students. This reasonably moderate support undoubtedly will encourage him to run.
     
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 29.8.2011
     
     
*This editorial appeared in print just hours before Anneli Jäätteenmäki announced that she would be joining the growing list of those not seeking the presidential nomination of the Centre Party.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Niinistö well ahead in presidential race – Lipponen distant second (29.9.2011)

See also:
  MEP Jäätteenmäki declines to run for President (30.8.2011)

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