EDITORIAL: Presidential race - real differences in support emerge

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A fresh Helsingin Sanomat Gallup poll finally reveals that clear changes are finally occurring in backing for presidential candidates.
      Support for the National Coalition Party’s Sauli Niinistö has continued to shrink, but he remains the obvious front-runner with numbers all his own.
      An intense competition is under way for second place. Seeking a spot in a possible second round, the Centre Party’s Paavo Väyrynen and the Green League’s Pekka Haavisto are on an equal footing.
      The Finns’ Party’s Timo Soini has fallen clearly behind those two.
      The SDP’s Paavo Lipponen and the Left Alliance’s Paavo Arhinmäki are fighting for fifth place.
      The combined support of the candidates of the left is a paltry 12 per cent. The famous red machine is making ominous clanking noises.
     
This time, support for the candidates was calculated only among those who actually named their candidates.
      The largest group of respondents in the entire sampling was those whose response was that they “do not know or do not want to say” - a total of 30 per cent.
      A significant proportion of those who could not name a favourite candidate are unlikely to even vote.
      Correspondingly among those who did not want to give an opinion, at least some have voted in advance.
      Niinistö’s election already in the first round remains a possibility, although it is not very likely to happen.
      Niinistö’s support among those who gave an opinion is more than one-third, while the other candidates combined got less than two-thirds of the vote.
      The undecideds and those who are keeping their views a secret could end up deciding the election.
     
In any event, Väyrynen and Haavisto are close to getting into the second round.
      This is a considerable achievement for each of them.
      Väyrynen’s success indicates what can be achieved with the help of diligent field work.
      He has attracted “returning migrants” to his fold - Centre Party supporters who protested in the parliamentary elections by either sitting on their hands or by voting for the Finns Party (or the True Finns as they were known at the time).
      Euro-sceptical Centre Party supporters finally have a candidate that they can get behind.
      Väyrynen’s support already exceeds that of his party in opinion polls.
     
In the light of these figures, Väyrynen would seem to have been a good choice as the Centre Party’s candidate, even though the party leaders eagerly looked for competitors to run in his stead.
      Another significant achievement is that Väyrynen has established such a big gap between himself and Timo Soini.
      At this point opinion polls can have a self-fulfilling effect: the euro-sceptics notice that Väyrynen has real prospects of reaching a second round, causing them to switch from Soini’s camp to Väyrynen’s.
      Among supporters of the Finns Party, 55 per cent support Soini, 16 per cent support Niinistö, and 13 per cent support Väyrynen.
     
However, it must be remembered that Soini also has solid blue-collar support. It is hard to imagine that many of them would willingly give their vote to Väyrynen.
      It would be premature to interpret Soini’s numbers as an indication of a collapse of support for the Finns’ Party. After the parliamentary elections, Soini’s next real goal is the municipal elections in the autumn.
     
Another considerable achievement has been that of Pekka Haavisto, especially considering that he has a fairly small party behind him.
      Haavisto’s poll numbers are now more than twice those of the Greens.
      There is a kind of response to the victory of the Finns Party in the Parliamentary elections to be seen in Haavisto’s rise: a backlash by educated urban voters with liberal values to the result of the parliamentary election.
     
Just as Väyrynen is eating away at support for Soini, Haavisto is taking support from the other liberal candidates, including Paavo Lipponen.
      Among supporters of the SDP, 37 per cent would vote for Lipponen, 28 per cent are for Niinistö, and 17 per cent back Haavisto.
      This trend, too, might be strengthened by opinion polls: Haavisto’s support grows as people notice that he has a real chance of reaching the second round.
      However, it is hard to say how much of the support enjoyed by Haavisto involves the traditional opinion poll mirage affecting the Greens: many support the party, but fewer people bother to go to the polls.
     
Advance voting ends today [Tuesday].
      Traditionally about 40 per cent of the total tally of votes are given in advance.
      On the last days before the direct two-stage elections, there are generally considerable shifts in support.
      However, the time is now running so short that it would be a minor miracle if anyone were to rise from fourth or fifth place.
      Nevertheless, it is still possible for something like that to come to pass.
     
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 17.12.2012
     


See also:
  Poll: Niinistö’s lead narrows; Haavisto and Väyrynen in dead-heat for second place (17.1.2012)

Helsingin Sanomat