Researcher Reijo Mankinen of Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) says that the labour dispute in the pulp and paper industry could cut a full percentage point off this year’s economic growth in Finland.
"Finland’s economic growth for the whole year will now be under two percent", Mankinen says.
Just a few weeks ago ETLA predicted this year’s economic growth to reach 2.2%. This has already dropped to 1.7%.
Mankinen admits that in such a situation it is very difficult to make predictions of growth, because at the beginning of the dispute only a few factories were on strike. Now the current lockout has spread the impact to other parts of the economy.
At the beginning of the dispute, companies managed to keep things going with the help of temporary measures. Now the lockout has lasted so long that sectors dependent on the forest industry face temporary layoffs and dismissals.
Mankinen say that the lockout primarily affects the chemical industry, energy production, and transport services.
"About 60% of railway cargo traffic involves products of the forest industry", Mankinen says.
The dispute is also having an impact on private transport and engineering companies. On Wednesday the Trade Association of Finnish Forestry and Earth Moving Contractors estimated that companies in the field are losing between eight and ten million euros a week in lost business.
ETLA’s Mankinen does not believe that companies will make up for the losses incurred during the labour dispute later in the year. He says that some potential orders for the Finnish paper industry have already gone to other countries.
