Europe in year one after the rejection of the EU constitution
EU's pause for reflection could stretch into next decade
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By Tellervo Yrjämä-Rantioja
Europe has been pausing for reflection over the proposed constitution for the European Union for nearly a year now. In late May and early June last year Europe stopped, as if had run into a wall, when the French and Dutch rejected the European Union constitution in their referendum.
The referendum was frozen for a year. At the summit in June, the leaders of the EU countries are to ponder the crisis.
No solution is being seriously sought before the French Presidential elections next spring. Many have pronounced the constitution dead, and just as many have been trying to revive it. Some would like to pick the cherries out of the cake.
Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker predicted in the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that the paralysis in the EU could continue even longer - at least until 2009, if not all the way until the next decade.
Juncker's pessimism is based on his expectation that the large countries will take centre stage in resolving the crisis.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in early May in her policy speech on the EU that Germany will seek to revive the EU constitution during its turn at the EU Presidency in the spring of 2007. She says that the constitution could contain a declaration for a "social Europe", which usually refers to workers' rights - and sometimes the welfare state.
According to Juncker, Merkel, who is eager to implement reforms, will not have enough partners agreeing with her next spring. France is just in the process of choosing a new President, and Britain's Tony Blair is getting ready to step aside. Italy's new Prime Minister Romano Prodi on his own is not enough.
Of the medium-sized countries, Poland has a government that takes a very critical view of the EU, and the new Foreign minister Anna Fotyga wants to fix the constitution in many respects: she wants to get rid of the preamble, because it makes no reference to Christian values, the primacy of EU legislation with respect to national law should be modified, and the present jurisdiction of member states should be protected.
In the expanded EU it is getting to be a bit old fashioned to think that two or three of the largest countries could lead the body. Without them the EU cannot move forward, but they also need small countries as partners.
Most of the 25 member states are now small countries, and the proportion of small countries is growing, as the EU takes on new members from East Europe and the Balkans.
British historian and Europe expert Timothy Garton Ash goes further in his column in The Guardian: he writes that he believes that the future of the EU depends on the small countries, and on their ability to think big.
He bases this belief on various aspects. Small countries do not start wars, and small countries are not arrogant in the way that the big ones are. They are, therefore, humble and familiar, and they often have a strong sense of community.
Above all, residents in small European countries are faring well. Seven small European countries are among the top ten of the UN Index of Human Development. Finland is also vying for a spot in the top ten. Last year Finland's ranking was number 13. The index measures health, education, and per capita GDP.
Negative aspects of small countries can include provincialism and fear of larger neighbours.
If the small countries want to think big, Garton Ash says that a good education system is an absolute necessity. One can add to this that stability, prosperity, and a high level of knowledge gives flexibility and courage for new thinking.
Finland is among the top of the class of small successful countries. Finland would have the opportunity of a lifetime to think big, especially now that the attention of the EU will be directed at Finland during the EU Presidency in the autumn.
Is Finland capable of thinking big? Let us take as an example the previous EU Presidency, the autumn of 1999. At that time the EU decided to take Turkey as a membership candidate, and to begin military crisis management.
It may have been a coincidence that the great decisions happened upon the Finnish Presidency, but Finland may have had something to do with it; at least Finland was not trying to stop it.
Now the EU is in a state of paralysis, and support for the Union among the people is waning.
So what is Finland doing now?
The government and Parliament are getting ready to give their approval to the EU constitution, which has been rejected by two founding members of the EU. Is it an expressoin of great thinking to grab onto something that has been rejected twice?
Finland's political leadership knows well that the EU constitution cannot take effect in its current form - at least not if someone asks the people what they think.
EU expert Tapio Raunio said last week at the publication of his latest book that he suspects that Finland wants to get the constitution matter out of the way so that it would not interfere with the Finnish EU Presidency.
But what if Finland were to raise the constitution and getting out of the crisis onto centre stage for a moment next autumn. At the unofficial summit in Lahti there will apparently be a shortage of important topics to discuss.
Approval of the people is the key in developing the EU, say both Merkel and Juncker - in their speeches at least.
"This crisis is especially serious, because there is no longer the kind of European majority that would really want a common Europe", Juncker says.
If there really are many years to think, it would be an opportune moment to start assessing what kind of a Europe a majority would be ready to accept. In this, even a small country has the opportunity to think big.
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 27.5.2006
TELLERVO YRJÄMÄ-RANTINOJA / Helsingin Sanomat
tellervo.yrjama-rantinoja@hs.fi
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| 30.5.2006 - THIS WEEK |
 Europe in year one after the rejection of the EU constitution |
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