Finnish average temperature likely to rise by 4 - 7 degrees this century

US blocks inclusion of recommended measures from Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

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If global warming is not stopped, Finnish nature could undergo considerable changes in the coming 100 years. According to an international study, Southern Finland would be much like Northern Germany is now, and conditions in Northern Finland would be similar to those of Southern Finland today.
      An extensive report on climate change in the Arctic region was published on Tuesday at a symposium in Iceland. The initiative for the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) came from a ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council four years ago. The project included scientists from the Nordic Countries, the United States, Russia, and Canada.
     
The assessment found that climate change is faster and more profound in the Arctic region than elsewhere in the world.
      During the coming century, average temperatures are expected to rise between four and seven degrees Celsius even if limits are placed on emissions of greenhouse gases.
      If emissions continue unabated, the increase could be as high as 10°C.
     
The report was to have included a list of proposals for measures to fight climate change. However, Petteri Taalas of the Finnish Meteorological Institute says that the United States blocked the inclusion of the proposals.
      Taalas says that there was "a taste of politics" involved; the scenario that was chosen for the final report was the model whose achievement would already require significant reductions in emissions.
      Therefore, the warming trend was estimated to be lower than it is likely to be in reality.
     
The anticipated impact on Finnish forests will be that the forested zone will move further north, and to higher elevations. Trees will grow faster, but at the same time, insect pests that hurt trees will also find a more hospitable habitat.
      The changes in the annual growth rhythms of the trees could also lead to more widespread destruction of forests. The decrease in ground frost would also make trees more susceptible to storms.
      The narrow tundra zone of Northern Finland would become narrower still, as the flora and fauna of Southern Finland move northward. Earlier studies have warned that biodiversity might suffer, as plants struggle to survive in their changed habitat and their replacements cannot migrate north quickly enough. The existence of the Baltic Sea on two sides of the country puts a geographical brake on plant migration. Regrettably, weeds seem to be fairly fleet of foot in this respect.
      As and when the new species take hold, problems would also follow: life would become more difficult for reindeer, for instance, as southerly plants gradually encroach on the habitat of the reindeer moss (Cladonia rangiferina) lichen which is their staple food.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  WWF: climatic change has altered Finnish flora and fauna (17.5.2002)
  WWF: Climatic change could radically reduce Finnish biodiversity (31.8.2000)

Links:
  Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)

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