Finns increasingly unsure about NATO membership

Uncertainty doubled among supporters of National Coalition Party

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The August war between Russia and Georgia and the lively NATO dialogue that has continued in Finland ever since do not seem to have shifted the Finns’ opinions one way or another with regard to joining the western military alliance.
     
Firm opinions both for and against NATO membership have tempered to a certain extent compared to a year ago.
      Instead, uncertainty has increased in relation to what Finland should do about joining NATO.
      According to a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat in early September, one in five Finns cannot say if Finland should join NATO. A year ago the share of “don't knows" or "uncertains” was 16%, and a year-and-a-half ago 11%.
      Otherwise the basic stand on the NATO question remains as before: a clear majority of people are against NATO membership. Only just over 20 per cent of the Finns are in favour of joining the alliance.
      The attitude towards a referendum on the NATO question is also unchanged: more than 70 per cent of the people feel that a referendum is needed if the question of joining becomes relevant.
     
The National Coalition Party has for long stood out from the rest of the field in that the majority of its supporters favour the idea of joining NATO.
      Now this majority has shrunk to a bare minimum of 50 per cent: since last autumn the number of those uncertain about their view has doubled from ten to twenty per cent among the party’s supporters.
      Among the Green League supporters there are very few who support NATO membership, but the percentage of “uncertains” is even greater than within the National Coalition.
      Suomen Gallup, who conducted the survey, also asked the Finns’ view of a possible threat caused by Russia.
     
A sizeable majority of the citizens seem to think that Russia is not a very big or any kind of threat to Finland.
      In all, 22 percent of the Finns regard Russia as a great or fairly great threat to Finland.
      The figure roughly corresponds to the percentage of those who are in favour of NATO membership.
      Apparently other reasons than a possible threat from the east dictate the Finns' stand in the NATO question. Namely, only a third of those who favour NATO membership see Russia as a threat. Of those who oppose the membership just under 20 percent seem to feel that way.
     
The latest developments with Russia have been a cause for some concern, though, for now 26 per cent of the Finns feel that Russia poses a greater threat than before. A year ago the corresponding figure was 20.
      Nevertheless, a large majority still feels that the risk Russia imposes to Finland’s security remains unchanged.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Parliament fails to snare Foreign Minister Stubb over NATO comments (11.9.2008)
  Stubb NATO comments raise questions (2.9.2008)

Helsingin Sanomat