Gallup: National Coalition Party threatening Social Democrats’ historical dominance in Vantaa

Less than two weeks to municipal elections; advance voting starts on Wednesday

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The upcoming municipal election looks set to be extremely dramatic in the southern city of Vantaa, where competition over political sway between the top two parties - the Social Democrats and the moderate conservative National Coalition - is exceptionally tight.
      The Social Democrats, who have been the dominating political party in Vantaa during the city’s entire history, have lost ground. The NCP, in turn, has kept its support at the level of the previous municipal elections, and therefore now holds a chance of becoming the leading party in the city.
     
According to an opinion poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup in early October, 26.9 per cent of the Vantaa residents would have voted for the Social Democrats, down from 30.1% at the last municipal election in 2004. The National Coalition is breathing down the SDP's neck, only 0.4 percentage points adrift.
      As the difference is smaller than the poll’s margin of error, it is fair to say that the parties are equally popular.
     
What adds to the election’s excitement is the fact that those people who in the poll said they would support the Green League or the True Finns are also somewhat unsure of their position.
      More than half of the True Finns and no fewer than 63% of the Greens may still change their attitude or not vote at all. The Greens nevertheless look set to remain as the third party in Vantaa , with a poll forecast of just under 15%.
      The most party-faithful are the supporters of the Left Alliance. Over 90 per cent of them said they were sure or reasonably sure that they would cast a vote.
      The latest poll predicts the governing Centre Party would take around 7% of the vote, putting them behind the Left Alliance in 5th place.
     
Two earlier polls in Helsinki had already warned that the Greens might relegate the Social Democrats to third place in the capital, so the SDP will be alarmed at the current trend, with just under two weeks until election day.
     
     
Municipal elections will be held in Finland on October 26th. Advance voting runs from October 15th (Wednesday) to 21st, and participation in the election is open to all residents of Finland who have attained the age of 18 by the election day, including foreigners.
      Citizens of EU countries as well as of Iceland and Norway can vote in their municipality of residence, if they have lived there at least fifty-one days prior to the election.
      The same rules apply for other foreign nationals, with the additional proviso that they are required to have been resident in Finland for an uninterrupted period of two years. Details from the Justice Ministry site.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  HS-Gallup: Greens and SDP neck and neck in run-up to Helsinki municipal elections (6.10.2008)
  HS candidate selection engine opened to public (2.10.2008)
  Poll suggests Greens will outscore SDP in Helsinki municipal elections (1.10.2008)

Links:
  Municipal Elections 2008 (Ministry of Justice)

Helsingin Sanomat