HS Gallup: Filatov and Tuomioja equally popular in race for SDP leadership

Half of SDP supporters want new chair to be below age of 50

Tarja Filatov

Erkki Tuomioja

Johannes Koskinen

Jutta Urpilainen

Pia Viitanen

Miapetra Kumpula-Natri

Mikko Mäenpää

Kimmo Kiljunen

Jouko Skinnari

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Two Social Democratic Members of Parliament, former Minister of Labour Tarja Filatov and former Minister for Foreign Affairs Erkki Tuomioja enjoy equal levels of support among declared supporters of the SDP in the ongoing race for the leadership of the largest opposition party in the Finnish Parliament.
     Both Filatov and Tuomioja got 19 per cent support in a poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup.
     
In the survey, supporters of the Social Democratic Party were asked who they felt should be chosen as the party's next chair.
     The respondents to the poll were given a list of all of the declared candidates, in addition to one potential "dark horse" candidate, Mikko Mäenpää, the chairman of the Finnish Confederation of Salaried Employees (STTK). Mäenpää has not announced his candidacy for the SDP leadership, but his name has been put forward as a possible contender.
     
While they are in a virtual dead heat as first choices of the respondents, Tarja Filatov comes out slightly ahead of Erkki Tuomioja when the SDP supporters' second choices are considered. The combined first and second choices give Filatov 36 per cent, against 31 per cent for Tuomioja.
     Tuomioja gets much of his support among Social Democratic party supporters with a higher education. He is particularly favoured among members of the Confederation of Unions for Academic Professionals (AKAVA) and the STTK.
     Members of the mainly blue-collar Central Organisation of Finnish Trade Unions (SAK) tend to favour Filatov.
     
The more left-leaning SDP supporters are most likely to support either Erkki Tuomioja or Tarja Filatov to the others. Social Democrats who lean more to the right split their support more evenly among the field of candidates.
     Exactly half of SDP supporters felt that the new party leader should be under the age of 51, while 36 per cent specified the age range of 41 to 50, and 38 per cent felt that age does not matter.
     
Of the other candidates vying for the SDP leadership, the only one whose support exceeds single digits is Johannes Koskinen who is backed by 11 per cent of respondents.
     The responses indicate that Koskinen's supporters generally prefer a man as party leader, who is politically not as far to the left as Tuomioja.
     A clear majority of SDP supporters are in favour of the initiative for advisory party referendum called for by Erkki Tuomioja.
     
Respondents to the survey were also asked what qualities they felt that Finnish Social Democrats would like their party leader to have. The most important attribute, named by 54 per cent of respondents, was that of political experience.
     A capacity for change was seen as the second-most important attribute, followed by public communications skills and good repartee, efficiency, and people skills.
     Good people skills were given higher higher priority than experience in labour market affairs, for instance.
     Youthfulness was ranked as lowest in importance of the various attributes put forward.
     
The gender of the candidate was also seen as relatively unimportant, with 70 per cent saying that it is of no significance.
     Just 21 per cent felt that the new Social Democratic leader should preferably be a woman, while a mere eight per cent were of the opinion that a man would be preferable.
     Respondents were also asked to evaluate the performance of the party's outgoing chairman, MP and former Minister of Finance Eero Heinäluoma.
     On the scale used in report cards in Finnish schools, in which four is the lowest grade and ten is the highest, Eero Heinäluoma scored an average of 7.3.
     
Elderly SDP supporters, pensioners, and those with a leftward leaning gave Heinäluoma a better appraisal than others.
     The most critical toward the performance of Eero Heinäluoma were Social Democratic Party supporters from the Helsinki region, those who were members of AKAVA, those leaning politically toward the right of the party, and those with a middle class background.
     
The poll was conducted between February 14th through the 20th, involving interviews with 1,082 Finns aged 15 to 69 who had declared themselves supporters of the Social Democratic Party. The names were taken from a Suomen Gallup database comprising 40,000 people.
     The margin of error in the survey is a maximum three percentage points in either direction.
     
Click on the pictures on the right to see the results of the poll for each candidate for the SDP chair.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Survey: Filatov and Tuomioja most popular in Social Democratic leadership race (22.2.2008)
  The Social Democrats have a genuine problem (17.2.2008)
  SDP leadership race: Filatov and Urpilainen seen as favourites (12.2.2008)
  Eero Heinäluoma to give up SDP leadership (11.2.2008)
  Tuomioja to run for chairman of Social Democratic Party again (14.1.2008)
  Foreign Minister Tuomioja demands greater SDP self-criticism (22.3.2007)

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