HS-Gallup: Greens and SDP neck and neck in run-up to Helsinki municipal elections

National Coalition Party likely to remain largest on City Council; parties of the left could lose four seats

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In the run-up to municipal elections in Helsinki, the Greens and the Social Democrats are competing equally for second place in popularity ranking behind the National Coalition Party.
      The National Coalition Party is likely to maintain its supremacy, even though it has not materially increased its popularity in the capital city.
     
An interview poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by TNS Gallup forecasts 19 seats for the Greens and the SDP alike on the 85-member Helsinki City Council.
      Compared with the 2004 municipal elections, the Greens would gain two additional seats, while the SDP would lose two.
     
The Greens are now one-tenth of a percentage point ahead on votes compared with the SDP. Some other opinion polls have suggested an even better result for the Green League.
      ”The trend is clear. We are doing well in Helsinki”, says Otto Lehtipuu, the chairman of the Greens' Council group.
      According to Lehtipuu, the Greens will not focus on the activities of the National Coalition Party and the SDP in their electoral campaign. They will pay attention to floating voters and non-voters.
     
In general, a high turnout of voters is believed to favour the Social Democrats.
      Kai Kalima, the chairman of the SDP Council group, also believes that in a time of economic difficulty people tend to trust the SDP and God.
      ”We will get approximately the same number of council seats as we occupy at present”, Kalima estimates.
      He thinks that the SDP’s most challenging competitor will be the True Finns party. However, unlike many polls (see linked article for one), Kalima does not believe in any significant rise in the support for the small right-of-centre populist party.
     
The National Coalition Party would look to be raising the number of its council seats to 26, even though the Greens and the SDP would be competing for the last seat of the National Coalition Party with a difference of only some dozens of votes.
      At present, the National Coalition Council group actually comprises 27 councillors, as one Social Democrat and one member of the Greens have defected across the aisle to the party in the course of the current term.
      Nevertheless, Risto Rautava, the chairman of the Council group does not join in the shouts of joy, saying that support for the National Coalition Party is not yet as high as it should be.
      ”The goal is 30 per cent”, Rautava reports.
     
Among the smaller parties, the most significant phenomenon is the rise of the True Finns party.
      However, in the light of the HS-Gallup the support of the True Finns is likely to remain lower than was earlier anticipated. According to the poll, the party would double its support and the number of seats on the Council, from one to two. One earlier assay offered the True Finns a total of four seats.
      The results of the latest survey suggest further that the left-wing parties would lose a total of four seats. In addition to the SDP’s loss of two seats, the poll also predicts losses for the Left Alliance (down from 8 to 7) and for the Communist Party of Finland, which would lose its only seat.
     
A total of 1,000 telephone interviews were completed by TNS Gallup last week. The respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the municipal elections were held now. The margin of error in the survey is three percentage points in either direction.
      In addition, those polled were asked whether or not they are likely to change their mind before the elections.
     
In this department, both the Social Democrats and the Greens will have their work cut out for them to shepherd supporters to the polling stations.
      As many as 61% of the Green supporters polled said that they might either stay at home or change their party affiliation by the time the election came around.
      Supporters of the Swedish People's Party and the National Coalition Party showed appreciably greater resolve.
      Then again, they will need it, for the NCP will be losing three big names who are not standing for re-election and who collected roughly a quarter of the party's votes in 2004.
      The Swedish People's Party will also have to find a new home for the 5,000 votes of Eva Biaudet, and the True Finns will have to get by without the attractions of ex-wrestler Tony Halme, who collected nearly 2,400 votes for them at the last election.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll suggests Greens will outscore SDP in Helsinki municipal elections (1.10.2008)

See also:
  HS candidate selection engine opened to public (2.10.2008)

Links:
  Municipal Elections 2008, Ministry of Justice

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