Helsingin Sanomat poll: European Parliament election turnout could come close to 45%

Greens and Left Alliance supporters showing most solid intentions to cast vote

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2A poll carried out by Suomen Gallup on behalf of Helsingin Sanomat indicates that some 45% of voters are completely sure they will cast their ballot in Sunday’s European Parliament elections, or that they have already done so in advance. The figures suggest that there will not be a repeat of the catastrophically low turnout of five years ago.
      According to Suomen Gallup, the respondents’ comments suggest that the real voting percentage on the day will be around 40%, a healthy improvement from the embarrassment of 31.4% in 1999.
      In terms of voter activity, the supporters of the Greens have slipped past those of the National Coalition Party since the end of May. The "firmness" of Green supporters rose by as much as 14%-points, from 44% to 58%. Supporters of the Left Alliance also seem to have firmed up their intention to vote, relative to earlier surveys. National Coalition voters have been at or near the top of the pile in all the spring’s polls of voting intention.
      Regionally, the Helsinki Metropolitan Area is likely to produce the highest turnout figures, while the Euro-elections have produced rather less enthusiasm in rural areas.
     
The poll also examined whether Finns primarily cast their votes for a political party, or whether their chosen candidate was selected regardless of his or her party loyalties. A change has taken place since 1999 in this respect: the party now means more to the majority of respondents than does the merit of the individual candidate. This is the reverse of the situation five years ago.
      Among Left Alliance supporters, as many as 70% placed party before candidate. SDP supporters, on the other hand, showed the strongest leaning (around 40%) towards voting for a "good man" or "good woman" irrespective of their party affiliation.
     
The poll was carried out at the beginning of June and indicates an 8%-point increase in likely voter activity from results in late May. A similar study carried out five years ago suggested 37% would vote, but hitherto the real turnout has fallen short of pre-election poll indicators.
      A total of around 2,000 telephone interviews were carried out, and the margin of error is ±2%.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Finnish expert: Domestic issues dominating on eve of European Parliament elections (10.6.2004)
  Poll: Jäätteenmäki, Stubb, and Seppänen most popular candidates in Finland (10.6.2004)
  Centre and National Coalition on top in European Parliament election poll (9.6.2004)
  Sanoma House public debate launches final stretch of European election campaign (2.6.2004)

Links:
  Ministry of Justice elections web site

Helsingin Sanomat