Helsinki population growth continues

Immigration from abroad and higher birth rate turns population trend upward

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The Helsinki population curve has seen a distinct change of direction in the course of the past eighteen months. During the first seven months to the end of July 2006, the population of the capital rose by nearly 1,700. This compares with a decline of 60 persons over the same period in 2005.
      The shift began in earnest in the latter half of last year, when the numbers increased unexpectedly by around 2,000. According to the City of Helsinki's Urban Facts unit, the growth is expected to continue through this year to the tune of around 3,000 more names on the population register.
      The change is plain for all to see: between 2002 and 2004, Helsinki was losing population steadily each year.
     
A number of factors have contributed to the climb from last year onwards. For instance the number of live births is up and the net migration from abroad has been larger than before.
      It is estimated that the population of Helsinki will continue to grow by something like 3,000 souls next year, too. Thereafter the anticipated annual increase is an average of 1,700.
     
Improved employment prospects are a further background variable, as the region proves more attractive to labour than before, prompting greater internal migration into the capital, in spite of steep property prices. In past years, one reason for Helsinki's loss of population has been the flight of families with young children to surrounding communities in search of affordable larger dwellings.
     
The population predictions do not take any account of the possible annexation of western parts of the neighbouring comunity, Sipoo.
      The Urban Facts office has not yet had a chance to assess the significance of a possible change in the city boundaries. The entire subject only surfaced in the summer.
      It is clear that the population would grow by more if part of Sipoo were added, but what is not so certain is whether ultimately this would be something of a zero-sum game, in which people from other parts of Helsinki would move to the new greenfield areas to be developed, or whether there would be entirely new growth potential created.
      Without the "Sipoo factor" it is estimated that the population of the capital will increase by around 19,500 over the next decade, with one third of this coming in the form of net migration gain.
     
One strong characteristic of the forward Helsinki population structure is a decline in the numbers of children of kindergarten and school age. By the middle of the next decade it is estimated there will be some 8,500 fewer children of comprehensive school age (7-16 years) in Helsinki.
      Conversely, the share of those over the age of 65 will grow by a third during the next ten years. At present, areas such as Maunula, Puotinharju, Munkkiniemi, the northern parts of Haaga, Kontula, Munkkivuori, and Koskela are the districts with the strongest concentrations of elderly people.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Helsinki City Council endorses proposal for changing eastern city line (22.6.2006)
  Helsinki population growth in 2005 dependent on migrants from abroad (3.1.2006)
  Helsinki population on increase after three years of negative development (19.9.2005)

Links:
  City of Helsinki Urban Facts

Helsingin Sanomat