Investors optimistic about future of Finnish export industries
No boom yet, but “worst is over”
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Timo Tyrväinen, head economist at Aktia Bank, and economist Pasi Kuoppamäki of Sampo Bank believe that Finland’s export industries will start showing steady growth in about two years.
Tyrväinen feels that the “success story of Finland’s export industry” should pick up from where it left off before the current recession.
“It is impossible for me to imagine that anything would have happened that would have eliminated the preconditions for growth for Finnish export companies”, Tyrväinen says.
The recovery in world trade that started happening already last spring was largely based on massive growth in Asia. Tyrväinen says that this should be a positive trend for Finland, because the forest industry has traditionally been one of Finland’s strong export sectors.
Tyrväinen wonders why Finnish exports to Asia or Russia have not rebounded.
“We should have machines and devices that are needed in Asia, but for some reason, there have not been great signs of recovery in our exports”, he points out.
Pasi Kuoppamäki also believes that Finnish exports will recover in a couple of years.
“According to our forecast, Finnish exports will grow by four per cent this year, and nine per cent next year, so Finland should achieve the level of the summer of 2008 in 2013", Kuoppamäki points out.
Kuoppamäki does not expect rapid growth in Finnish exports, as no sector is likely to experience rapid growth in the way that the IT sector did in previous years.
“There is no new Nokia in sight. I believe that the metal industry has capacity to grow in Finland, and why not the chemical industry as well. The forest industry will certainly keep moving ahead, but it is no longer an engine of growth”, Kuoppamäki says.
Analysts interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat say that the results of forest industry companies and engineering works for the early part of this year are likely to confirm the image of a slight improvement in growth.
The companies are publishing their first quarter results in the coming weeks.
However, the companies are not predicting any great success stories for the companies, although it appears that the worst is over.
“The situation is not brilliant in any way, but the bottom has been seen”, says Hannu Angervuo, asset management strategist at eQ Bank on the situation that the forest industry is now facing.
Angervuo says that the expected Q1 results of Stora Enso and UPM, of about EUR 100,000 are far from the fat years of the previous decade.
“In 2000, the company sometimes reported a result of a billion euros in a single quarter. They are not getting to these kinds of numbers any more”, Hannu Angervuo says.
Helsingin Sanomat
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| 21.4.2010 - TODAY |
 Investors optimistic about future of Finnish export industries |
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