Iraq seminar: US forces seen as impediment to peace

Atmosphere reportedly improved considerably during discussions

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The Iraqi delegates taking part in a seminar held in Finland on the situation in Iraq agreed on the need to get American forces out of the country as quickly as possible.
      The final result of the seminar, held in the rural community of Hirvensalmi, was for a "realistic timetable" for the withdrawal.
     
"All parties said repeatedly that the occupation - the term that was used by the Iraqis - is an impediment to achieving peace in Iraq. The earlier the occupation ends, the better. However, at the same time they understood that a rapid withdrawal would lead to a security vacuum", said Padraig O'Malley, an Irishman who was one of the key planners of the seminar.
      The discussion over the future of US forces in Iraq will soon get a boost when David Petraeus, commander of the US forces in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker publish their situation reports.
      Lieutenant-Colonel Mika Kerttunen of the Finnish National Defence University notes that in addition to the Petraeus report, the withdrawal schedule from Iraq will be influenced by the US Presidential election campaign, as well as possible new and serious terror attacks in Iraq.
     
"There is no point in expecting a rapid US withdrawal, and it would not be in anyone's interest. If something were done in this direction at around the beginning of next year, I would consider it to be rather fast action", Kerttunen estimates.
      Kerttunen says that one alternative would be a controlled US withdrawal from Iraq, while at the same time shifting responsibility onto the Iraqis. In such a case, the US would offer intelligence information and air support, but would leave daily security matters to the Iraqis.
     
O'Malley feels that the greatest achievement of the weekend seminar was that the Iraqis gave their approval to the principles for future negotiations.
      However, much depends on how the message that the negotiators bring from Finland is received in Baghdad.
      "Serious negotiations should already have taken place. Now we want to see action and open negotiations as soon as possible", O'Malley said, hopefully.
      Kerttunen, for his part, felt that the most important achievement of the seminar was the simple fact that the two warring sides were brought before a negotiating table.
      "This does have the significance, that without this very first discussion, there would be no further negotiations, and no agreements could be reached. If someone had asked about it a week ago, I would not have expected even this much. The joint communiqué represents a public commitment by at least some on the matters. It is a small but important success, and without it there won't be any large ones", Kerttunen noted.
     
In the publicised declaration after the seminar, the representatives of Iraq’s leading political parties committed themselves to working towards a lasting solution.
      According to the 12 articles of the so-called Helsinki Treaty, all political disputes are to be resolved through peaceful and democratic means. The use of arms is not allowed during the negotiations. The aim is to establish an independent commission that will then oversee the disarmament of armed groups.
      So far as is known the seminar participants included the Shiite Minister for National Reconciliation Akram al-Hakim, two of the radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr’s representatives, representatives from the ruling Shiite party Dawa, and the Sunni politician Salih al-Motlag.
     
The seminar participants looked into the peace processes of South Africa and Northern Ireland for possible lessons that could be applied to the situation in Iraq.
      According to Padraig O'Malley, who took part in the discussions, the Iraqi delegates arrived in Hirvensalmi eyeing each other with suspicion, but they understood each other better at the end of the four-day gathering.
      "At the beginning, the atmosphere was somewhat tense, but it was very emotional when an understanding had been reached. Everyone embraced each other. The Iraqis went beyond their own expectations", O'Malley said.
      The seminar was carefully guarded from the public eye, with no inkling given even of the location chosen for it.
     
The gathering was arranged by the Crisis Management Initiative of former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, and by the John W. McCormack Institution of the University of Massachusetts, which was represented in the talks by O'Malley.
     
In a separate development, the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs is said to be making preparations for a possible visit to Iraq by Foreign Minister Ilkka Kanerva. As yet, the time of the visit has not been confirmed.
      "These are just preliminary plans", Kanerva commented over the telephone on Tuesday morning. In any event, it is unlikely to be very soon, as on Wednesday it was reported that Kanerva was on sick leave at least until the end of this week and was undergoing hospital treatment for minor chest injuries sustained in an accident on a small four-wheeled ATV. The incident took place during a ministerial planning and recreational meeting on Tuesday evening.
      Kanerva’s Swedish counterpart Carl Bildt paid a visit to Baghdad last weekend.
      On Tuesday Bildt commented in a column in the Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter that Sweden should increase its diplomatic presence in Iraq. At present, there are between 80,000 and 120,000 Iraqis living in Sweden.
      In July 2006, Finland's Ilkka Uusitalo was appointed by the European Commission to head the EC's Delegation in Iraq.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Around 20 Iraqi participants in CMI seminar (3.9.2007)
  CMI seminar on Iraq expected in Finland during the weekend (31.8.2007)
  Iraqi Shi´ite and Sunni mediators coming to Finland (22.8.2007)

Links:
  Crisis Management Initiative

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