Is voter apathy becoming hereditary?

Justice Ministry report suggests fewer than half will vote in municipal elections by 2030

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If everything follows the present pattern, the percentage of voters turning out for municipal elections will drop below 50 % by 2030, indicates information gathered by the Ministry of Justice.
      ”The current relatively good figures are based on the fact that the so-called baby boomers and the older generations before them have been ingrained voters. An entirely new habit is not to vote at all”, says Minister of Justice Tuija Brax (Green League).
      The Democracy Unit of the Justice Ministry has been monitoring the development of citizens’ voting activity and its future prospects. A report is due out in October, but in terms of democracy the preliminary information does not sound very encouraging.
     
Particularly young people have puzzled the researchers. In spite of Finland’s high standard of education, an increasing number of young people stay away from the polling stations, even though social participation and higher levels of education have been thought to go hand in hand.
      According to a recent survey, only 20% of vocational college students regard municipal elections as very important, while the same figure for upper secondary school students is 40 %.
      ”The phenomenon of not voting is particularly detectable among young men, even though some of them are highly educated. Moreover, the issues handled in municipal elections are easy to get one's head around, for example night buses, health centres, and schools”, Brax notes in amazed disbelief.
     
Until now voting has been connected with the so-called life-cycle effect, which means that activity grows with the years.
      Now the researchers want to introduce a new phenomenon, namely the so-called generational effect. According to this concept, the low voting activity of younger age groups is not just a phenomenon of a certain phase of life, but it is a permanent behavioural pattern.
     
”As recently as in the 1950s those who were in danger of being marginalised as well as the poor all tended to vote actively, thanks to the trade unions and left-wing parties. The present movements do not get through to them any longer”, Brax notes.
      Electoral participation in Finland peaked at the beginning ot the 1960s, when more than 80% of citizens voted in parliamentary elections. Since then the slide has been steady and downward.
      ”Compared with other Nordic countries, we have failed, as we have not managed to persuade young people to contribute to meaningful citizen participation”, Brax says, in response to radically lower turnout figures and a greater sense of suspicion towards poltics in general. .
     
According to the minister, the most significant reasons for the current situation include marginalisation and particularly the depression of the 1990s.
      At present, the children growing up during the recession are becoming adults of voting age, and there is reason to worry about whether some of them have been permanently sidetracked.
      On the other hand - does it matter?
      Yes, it does matter. A lot, says Brax.
     
”When the democratically elected systems do not have the confidence of the majority of people, non-democratic players will step in, laying a foundation for populism, which is not based on democracy and human rights. At the same time, fertile terrain for corruption can be provided”, Brax observed.
      In spite of her pessimistic scenarios, Brax does not wish to sound too downcast.
      ”Nobody claims that we cannot do anything about the matter. If we have once been one of the most active Nordic countries, why could we not regain that position?” Brax concludes.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Social Democrats emerge on top in municipal elections (25.10.2004)
  HS Gallup: health care, elderly, schools key issues in municipal elections (22.9.2008)

Links:
  Ministry of Justice: Elections

Helsingin Sanomat