Labour market experts doubt nurses will get pay hikes they want

Tehy action "seriously jeopardises mediation system"

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A number of labour market experts interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat say that the most likely outcome of the labour dispute involving Finnish nurses will be a long labour contract.
      A group of five experts in labour market affairs answered a number of questions put to them on Friday.
      None of the five expect the Union of Health and Social Care Professionals (Tehy) to come out of the battle with the large pay hikes that it wants.
      Tehy is calling for an extra pay increase of 15 per cent on top of the nine per cent being offered to municipal employees in general.
     
The union says that a significant raise is necessary to offset what it sees as seriously inadequate pay for its chronically underpaid members, who are professionals in very responsible positions. The employers have only offered an increase of 2.6 per cent to rectify the imbalance.
      The last time that a labour dispute involving Tehy escalated to actual industrial action, the impact of the strike was undermined by the requirement that the union allow a certain number of its members to maintain a minimum level of staffing at hospitals. This time, Tehy has chosen the unusual strategy of a mass resignation campaign, rather than a traditional strike.
      The experts interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat do not expect Tehy to win concessions of more than between one and three per cent more as a result of the dispute.
      Four out of the five say that they expect a long contract. One proposed a three-year deal, while the other expected five years. "In this period the percentages are tight, and in the next period a few elements will be added", was one expert's analysis.
     
The experts did not want their names to be revealed in the article; labour market leaders are known to be reluctant to take issue with the actions of other organisations, and the atmosphere is especially sensitive at the moment.
      Three of the anonymous experts were very critical of the Tehy tactic of threatening mass resignation.
      "The action seriously endangers the present mediation system - a system that has functioned until now", said one of the experts - a union representative.
      "Signs indicate that all bets have been placed on this resignation threat, with no thought of the consequences."
     
Tehy will back down, say two of the interviewees. However, none ventured to say how the leaders of the organisation might be able to convince the membership to accept a contract that falls short of significant pay rises.
      The responses of the interviewees suggest that it might take until the November 19th deadline, unless Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen takes the matter into his hands. "The Prime Minister could prove to be the winner, but this would require humility on all sides."
      One of the experts interviewed said that the state might even prepare for the enactment of emergency legislation. "Severe measures would not be decisive, but they would calm the field down. Then there would gradually be possibilities for a mediator".
      None felt that mandatory arbitration was something that could be enacted in this day and age, but the conflict itself was seen to "increase the need to reassess the system of industrial peace".
     
The five emphasised different aspects in their answers, but all five agreed on one thing: Tehy will not cancel its resignation threat.
      "I still do not believe that they will be implemented to such an extent (12,800 people). There will be cancellations, when people start pondering the consequences."
     
An opinion poll released by the Finnish Broadcasting Company (YLE) indicates that a majority of Finns sympathise with the course of action taken by Tehy.
      The poll showed that 61 per cent support the nurses, while 25 per cent are opposed, and 13 per cent had no opinion. The greatest support for the struggle came from the 25-34 age group, while the least sympathetic were those aged 50-70.
      The survey, conducted by the polling organisation Taloustutkimus, involved telephone interviews with about 1,000 people. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Health care workers threaten mass resignation in labour dispute (10.10.2007)
  Looming labour conflict would affect paediatrics, maternity, and surgery in Helsinki area (18.10.2007)
  Hospitals fear impact of nurses´ threatened industrial action (11.10.2007)

Helsingin Sanomat