Labour shortage will first hit ageing Eastern Finland

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According to a recent forecast, the impending labour shortage will affect different parts of Finland unevenly. The shortage will hit Eastern Finland in the 2010s, whereas some of the western and northern regions will not be affected until the following decade.
     
The best localities will act as labour magnets, and - apart from some temporary and field-specific exceptions - they will not experience labour shortage at all.
      While the population keeps ageing, the upswing of the Finnish economy continues. The boom increases the demand for labour and may even cause rapid changes in the labour market.
     
"There are considerable regional differences", says project manager, ministerial advisor Pekka Tiainen from the Ministry of Labour. Tiainen acts as the chairman of the Labour 2025 Committee, the final report of which will be made public in February. The original deadline was at the end of this year.
      According to Tiainen, the situation is not set in stone for any of the regions. Internal migration, for one, may shift the balance in either direction.
     
Development manager Henrik Rissanen from the Regional Council of Pohjois-Savo (Northern Savo), working in cooperation with the Ministry of the Interior and the regional council, has developed a computer programme that predicts and models regional changes, for example in regard to the supply and demand of labour.
      Rissanen's model projects that a labour shortage will hit the regions of Northern Karelia, Southern Ostrobothnia, Central Ostrobothnia, Kainuu, Lapland, Southern Savo, and Northern Savo at various times between 2010 and 2030.
      By that time the areas will no longer have working-age people in sufficient numbers to fill the available jobs.
     
According to Pentti Hyttinen, executive director of the Regional Council of North Karelia, the labour development in Northern Karelia has been favourable in recent years, and at least so far there have been no signs of a large-scale labour shortfall.
      "The negative migration trend has slowed down significantly", Hyttinen says with some satisfaction. Of different lines of business, construction and industries in particular have grown significantly. There are now more industrial jobs in North Karelia than ever before.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Finnish internal migration reaches record levels (7.8.2006)

Links:
  Regional Council of Pohjois-Savo

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