Latest Gallup shows equal support for three largest political parties

A recent survey commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup indicates that the uproar caused by political contributions over the past month has had no significant effect on the popular support of the three largest parties.
     
The HS Gallup indicates that the support of the three largest political parties was almost equal in May, and the largest grouping now is the opposition Social Democratic Party with 22.2% support, followed by the National Coalition Party (21.8 %), and the Centre Party of Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen (21.3%).
      However, all three percentages fall within the margin of error of the study, which is some two percentage points either way.
      The interviews were conducted in May when a reform of election funds was already hotly being debated in public.
     
According to the poll, the Centre Party has been constantly losing supporters since the 2007 Parliamentary elections, in which the Centre was the largest party with its 23.1 % backing.
      After the elections, the Social Democratic Party in opposition managed to improve its support for twelve months, but lost ground slightly in April.
      The study says further that the National Coalition Party also managed initially to gain more supporters, but the backing has now stopped at around 22%.
      Of the government parties, only the Green League scored better in the latest poll than in the Parliamentary elections last year, while the True Finns' backing has stopped at around 5 %.
     
Certainty of party choice has declined among respondents. Last September the number of people who were uncertain of their choice was 24%, while in the latest poll more than one-third of respondents did not know or did not want to say which party they would vote for.
      Moreover, uncertainty has also increased among those who gave a preference. In May only some 38% of respondents were sure of their party choice, which is considerably below the long-term average.
      The younger the age group, the more uncertain the respondents tend to be of their choice, while in the group of over 64-year-olds more than half of the respondents were completely sure of the party they would vote for.
     
The poll involved telephone interviews with 2,851 Finns of voting age in mainland Finland taken between the 6th of May and the 30th of May.
     
The questions asked:
      If Parliamentary elections were to be arranged now, which party you would vote for?
      Which party did you vote for in the last Parliamentary elections in March 2007?
     
The support of each political party was estimated by combining the responses with the statistics from the last Parliamentary elections.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Centre Party losing popular support (5.5.2008)
  Party leaders agree on EUR 3,000 limit for individual political contributions in municipal elections (28.5.2008)
  Poll: SDP and Greens get back abstainers from 2007 election (11.3.2008)
  Poll: slight decline in support for Centre and National Coalition parties (24.9.2007)
  Prime Minister regards election campaign funding mess as serious (19.5.2008)

See also:
  COMMENTARY: Money matters (25.5.2008)