Midsummer weather forecast promises rain across Finland

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It looks bad. It looks wet. The latest 5-day weather maps show clouds, rain, and nasty bolts of lightning, while this year’s Midsummer weather is predicted to be cooler than average, which means temperatures below 20°C.
      This implies that one can forget sunbathing in Finland this Midsummer.
      However, there is still some hope, as the Midsummer weather forecasts are almost as unstable as the unsettled weather itself.
      It is impossible to make any watertight forecasts, says meteorologist Lea Saukkonen of the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
      While a two-day forecast can be accurate, a 7-day prediction can go almost 50 % wrong.
      On average, every second Midsummer is sunny, according to the statistics. And every second is not, as this year’s weather maps indicate.
     
”We meteorologists are pondering every day whether or not we could trust the forecasts. Typically, around 60 % of one-week predictions hold true. If the predictions were certain, no meteorologists would be needed”, Lea Saukkonen says with a laugh.
     
In the 1960s, all forecasts were based on local observations, which is why the Midsummer weather forecast was made at the last minute.
     
In the 1970s, meteorologists started to make long-term weather forecasts. However, the forecasts were very cautious, especially when promising temperatures of more than 20°C. When it comes to announcing warm weather in prospect, today’s meteorologists are cautious, too.
      ”If you go and predict that the weather will be mostly dry with the possibility of occasional showers and temperatures between 18°C and 22°C, people tend to believe that it means just 22°C and dry weather. If it rains, the meteorologist will be given an earful”, Saukkonen continues.
      The all-time sunniest Midsummer in Finland was in 1975, when the sun was shining for more than 32 hours from Midsummer Eve through Midsummer Day.
     
At the turn of the 1970s and 1980s, Finland suffered from cold Midsummers. For example at the Midsummer of 1981, one should have had to wear quilted overalls in order to keep warm out of doors, and the traditional skiing events in the far north of Lapland were carried off under great conditions.
     
According to the statistics gathered by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the daytime maximum temperatures normally reach above 20°C on average at Midsummer.
      This year, the temperatures are likely to remain below the average readings. The numbers show that hot weather (anything over 25°C) is experienced only every fourth or fifth Midsummer.
      By all accounts, this won't be one of them.
      Since 1961, Lappenranta has 12 times been the warmest locality at Midsummer, according to the statistics.
      Hence Lea Saukkonen hints that it might be worthwhile to head towards the east, as even this year the Midsummer weather is likely be a touch warmer in the eastern parts of the country than elsewhere.


Links:
  Finnish Road Administration - Road Weather Cameras
  Finnish Meteorological Institute

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