Ministry of Labour official expects improvement in employment situation in coming years

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Dr. Pekka Tiainen, an official at the Ministry of Labour, predicts that employment will start to improve this year, and that the trend should continue in the following two years. Tiainen believes that a massive structural change is taking place in Finland.
      The Labour Ministry has been wrestling with employment figures that came out in late May, according to which the number of employed in Finland had declined by 45,000 in one year.
      "If we look at the sectors in which employment has declined in the past two years, the number of jobs lost will be 150,000. On the other hand, in sectors in which employment has increased, there has been a gain of 115,000 jobs", Tiainen calculates.
      He says that some of the net decline is caused by cyclical factors. He also says that focal points change between sectors, and inside them.
     
The previous great structural change took place after the recession of the early 1990s. "We have lived with the structures that were created then for ten years. Now the change is also linked with globalisation."
      Tiainen says that looking for new directions of production shakes employment, "but after that, development will be more positive".
      In 2001 and 2002 when economic growth was weak, companies refrained from cutting jobs, and working hours were shortened. Tiainen estimates that this saved about 70,000 jobs.
      "Now the preservation of jobs at that time is having the opposite effect." Tiainen says that Finland has not managed to increase employment because there is a job reserve, and there is room for shoring up production.
      "However, employment will surge quickly when this reserve is depleted", he predicts.
     
In the most recent employment figures Tiainen sees signs of a recovery in exports. This applies to the paper and pulp industry, for instance. Improvements in the forest industry sector also have an impact on transport, which is also one of the growth sectors in job creation.
      The recovery in the forest industry differs from the general pattern, in that sawmills are not leading the recovery this time; both sawmills and plywood factories have reduced personnel.
      The metal, engineering, and electronics industries are providing fewer jobs, but Tiainen points out that the metal industry is no monolith. He notes that producers of transport equipment and manufacturers of specialised devices have managed to hire more people.
      In the manufacture of consumer goods the trend of job losses in the textile industry has continued, but employment has unexpectedly improved in the shoe and leather industries.
     
Service industry jobs increased by 7,000 from April last year to the same time this year. However, massive structural changes are taking place within the service sector. Jobs in the retail trade increased, and the trend was even stronger in property maintenance and business services. The restaurant and hotel business has lost jobs.
      Employment in health care and social services has declined during the spring, a trend which Tiainen attributes to a weakened financial position of local authorities.
      Tiainen is somewhat mystified at the disappearance of jobs in construction in the April figures. He notes that last year’s numbers were unusually high.
     
The proportion of full-time jobs has continued to decline at the expense of part-time ones. However, Tiainen sees signs of a turnaround. For instance, retail stores are having trouble finding part-time employees, because workers do not feel that such jobs bring sufficient income.
      Many fixed-term jobs have disappeared, or ended in unemployment. However, Tiainen feels that the time is coming when the number of fixed-term jobs will increase.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Opposition criticises employment policies of government (13.5.2004)

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