Ministry says up to 9,000 Finns could die of bird flu

More than third of Finns could catch avian influenza if global pandemic breaks out

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Initial estimates suggest that more than a third of Finns could catch avian influenza, or bird flu, if a global pandemic of the disease breaks out.
      A working group of the Ministry of social Affairs and Health estimates that if the virus mutates into a form that can spread among humans, Finland should prepare for 35% of the population catching the disease. It is also estimated that between 11,000 and 35,000 patients would have to be hospitalised, and that between 3,000 and 9,000 would die.
     
The virus that currently exists spreads mainly among birds, and some humans have been infected by birds - mainly in Asia. However, the United Nations has said that it is likely that the virus will eventually mutate and cause a global epidemic.
      Finnish health officials say that the risk of a pandemic has not significantly grown from last year, for instance, but that preparations nevertheless are needed for the possibility of an outbreak.
      Merja Saarinen, who chairs the working group on preparation for a pandemic, sees bird flu as the most likely threat of infectious disease in the industrialised world.
      Tapani Hovi, research professor at the National Public Health Institute, says that the bird flu epidemic, which has been raging in Southeast Asia, constitutes a permanent high risk of pandemic, even though the present virus is not the kind that could spread from one person to another.
      In their working group, Saarinen and Hovi are assessing what facilities might serve as reserve hospitals and quarantine locations. They are also mapping out a strategy for finding enough nursing staff and substitutes to replace those who fall ill themselves.
      The working group says that a vaccine to be administered to the whole population would be the most effective way to stop the spread of the virus, and to minimise the number of deaths, and the suffering caused by the disease.
      However, it is not possible to develop such a vaccine until a mutation has occurred, and a pandemic actually breaks out.
     
Finland is currently acquiring a model vaccine which works against the virus that has been spreading in Asia, and which could give at least partial protection against the mutated virus.
      Terhi Kilpi, head of the vaccine section of the National Public Health Institute, says that pharmaceutical manufacturers will submit tenders for the supply of the model vaccine by October 17th, and that it could become available sometime next year.
      In addition, Finland hopes to agree with some manufacturer on getting a place in the queue for five million doses of a precision vaccine against the mutated virus. Kilpi estimates that the precision vaccine would become available to Finns no earlier than half a year after the outbreak of the pandemic.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  No precision bird flu vaccine available yet (3.10.2005)
  Finland prepares to vaccinate entire population against avian flu (29.9.2005)
  Oulu seagulls died of common influenza, not bird flu (6.9.2005)
  Finland prepares for possible global bird flu pandemic (11.3.2005)

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