NEWS ANALYSIS: Finland to win in EU appointments game

Who was Halonen lobbying for in Brussels?

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By Jouni Mölsä
     
      At the end of this month, if not sooner, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen's (Centre Party) EU policies will be judged.
      The predictions will come to pass if the current Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn does not become the EU's new foreign minister, or to give it its full title the "High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy", and if one of the Finnish Social Democrats in the frame does not become the new EU President.
     
Vanhanen has been the main negotiator for the European Liberals in the appointments discussions. Up ahead lies the reckoning.
      If things go awry, expect to hear that this should have been done, or that, but definitely not THAT.
     
There are four top jobs up for grabs in the European Union this autumn: the Commission President, the President (or Speaker) of the European Parliament, the post of a permanent President of the European Council (the "EU President"), and the Foreign Minister's position.
      The first two of these have already gone, both to members of the centre-right European People's Party grouping (EPP), in the shape of José Manuel Barroso and Poland's Jerzy Buzek.
      The search is now on in earnest for two bottoms to fill the other seats.
     
Vanhanen's main line of attack has been that it is not right for a party that has garnered one-third of the votes to collect three of the four top positions.
      By this, he is referring to the fact that the EPP is believed to have cut a deal with the Socialist camp to collect the EU President's job as well, while the "High Representative" plum will go to the Socialists.
      Vanhanen has stressed over and over that all three of the large groupings in the European Parliament, namely the EPP, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, and ALDE, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, should each get one of the four available chairs.
     
In this way the Euroliberals' #1 candidate Olli Rehn would also have a shot at the foreign minister's portfolio.
      At present it looks as if the two largest groupings in the European Parliament are going to carve up the appointments between themselves.
      Vanhanen is right. This is not fair.
      Then again, fairness is not the first virtue that comes to mind when the EU is dividing up seats of power.
     
Whatever happens to Olli Rehn's candidacy, Vanhanen can defend himself by saying that in actual fact he has announced Finland's avowed aim is to get "as weighty a portfolio as possible" for Rehn.
      Interpreted quite literally, this means that any job whatsoever fits the bill.
      What comes up has been possible. Anything else... was not possible.
      So the Finn wins every time. Which is nice.
     
Olli Rehn's nerves have doubtless been frayed somewhat of late by the actions of Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb (National Coalition Party, cons.) in promoting the chances of the former Social Democrat leader and PM Paavo Lipponen, a possible runner in the "EU Presidency Stakes".
      There again, Stubb's work has been justified from the point of view of the current government.
      From the government's perspective the most important thing is that a Finn or Finns are up there in the loftier positions in the EU.
      It does not really matter even that it is an opposition politician, whose appointment would allow Jutta Urpilainen and her SDP predecessor Eero Heinäluoma to score a few bonus points.
      All the same, the manoeuvreing has not been particularly subtle or sensitive towards Rehn.
     
Last week's EU summit in Brussels was also attended by President Tarja Halonen.
      It could not have been for the climate discussions that were on the table, for the meeting in Brussels was to determine the EU's internal line on the issue, which is not on the President's to-do list.
      Halonen's intention was therefore presumably to influence the appointments question.
      Who was her top-ranked candidate? Did she perhaps lobby on behalf of Lipponen, too?
      In that event, part of the responsibility for ending up with an empty trophy cabinet could be transferred to the President's Office.
      Or if Halonen was not there to add her input to the appointments game, why was she at the summit?
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 3.11.2009
     


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Lipponen downplays suggestions of high EU office (22.10.2009)
  Olli Rehn focuses on economic affairs in preparation for EU Commission portfolio shuffle (20.10.2009)
  EU countries start behind-the-scenes discussions on leadership posts (30.10.2009)
  Decisions on top posts in European Union unlikely to be made this week

JOUNI MÖLSÄ / Helsingin Sanomat
jouni.molsa@hs.fi