NEWS ANALYSIS: Foreign policy family squabbles over power and inheritance

The devil is (mostly) in the details

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By Kari Huhta
     
      So much is being written about foreign and security policy in Finland these days that it is perhaps time to carry out a brief resumé of the main characters in the ongoing drama.
     
It is actually quite hard to ascertain what it is that people are arguing about.
      The most important voices in the debate are not taking Finland posthaste into NATO, nor are they dragging the country out of the EU, nor are they pulling out the Finnish troops currently stationed with ISAF in Afghanistan, and Russia is a "possibility" rather than a threat.
      The disputes are being waged over details and over new matters that might tilt the playing-field in one direction or another, to the east or to the west, to the left or to the right.
      The situation can be examined through looking at what it is that the main players want.
     
Paavo Lipponen (SDP) is a somewhat exceptional participant in the debate.
      The former Prime Minister, former Speaker of Parliament, etc., etc., has managed to maintain his fighting weight in the discussion without any longer having any official position in the country.
      Even more influence was wielded by one Deng Xiaoping in China, who managed to lead the country from 1989 until his death in 1997 despite holding no other official position than the Honorary Chairmanship of the Chinese Contract Bridge Association.
      Lipponen is protecting the legacy of the past. He accuses the conservatives of the National Coalition Party, who have moved into the midfield playmaker roles in security policy, of endangering his legacy by making party politics out of matters that can be kept on track only through consensus.
      Lipponen’s legacy in this context is guiding the Social Democrats clearly towards the path of western security policy - a path that can also lead to NATO membership.
     
Erkki Tuomioja (SDP) is also in the game to secure his particular legacy, which is one of keeping a hand-brake on Lipponen’s driving designs, and also turning the steering wheel to the left.
      In the party politicking that is feared by Lipponen, Tuomioja is a counterforce that has already started to roll forward.
      For his first move, Tuomioja suggested the dismissal of the Defence Minister.
      His next action was to flex his elbows and nudge Liisa Jaakonsaari - the strongest representative of the "Western" wing of his own party - out of the parliamentary review group that is monitoring the government’s next report on security and defence policy matters.
     
Tarja Halonen is seen all too easily as Tuomioja’s mixed-doubles partner in security policy issues, but stubborn individuals generally have their own personal views on matters.
      Besides, the President has more than just principles to defend. Her position in the power structure is also in the ring.
     
Matti Vanhanen (Centre) perhaps hopes that everyone could get along and things would go smoothly and peacefully, but the Prime Minister cannot always get what he wants.
      There is an image going the rounds that Halonen "allows" Vanhanen to play the role of Prime Minister in security policy questions. In order to erode and dissolve that image, the media are occasionally given the opportunity to report exclusively on the doings and sayings of a firm PM who knows his own mind.
     
Ilkka Kanerva (National Coalition Party) may be on much the same mission as Lipponen, and even Halonen, too - in other words protecting the status quo rather than changing it.
      All the same, the Foreign Minister’s political flexibility is hardly likely to take him anywhere to the left of the most right-wing of Social Democrats.
     
Defence Minister Jyri Häkämies has undoubtedly come across lately as a slightly attention-hungry rookie in the competition, but rookies should never be underestimated.
      At least thus far, the Ministry of Defence has itself been playing a very strong hand in the security policy media game. The President’s Office has looked on with some irritation at the steady march of ranking military officers giving pithy comments to newspapers and TV and radio.
     
The gallery of characters does not end here, but we can return to the other names and faces later.
      One thing is certain: the debate will run and run.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 23.9.2007


Previously in HS International Edition:
  COMMENTARY: Finnish Foreign policy decisions coming late (18.9.2007)
  COMMENTARY: Smiling Halonen lets go with both barrels (18.9.2007)
  Vanhanen seen to take background role in foreign affairs (17.9.2007)
  Häkämies says Washington speech in line with Finnish policy (10.9.2007)

KARI HUHTA / Helsingin Sanomat
kari.huhta@hs.fi