NEWS ANALYSIS: It looks like this will turn out to be a real contest
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By Marko Junkkari
There is no point in guessing yet who will be the next President of the Republic of Finland. The second round is a completely new election that has factors all its own influencing it. After all, nearly half of the voters of the first round will have to find themselves a new candidate.
Sauli Niinistö (Nat. Coalition Party) is certainly the advance favourite. The Helsingin Sanomat Gallup poll published last week suggested that Niinistö would trounce Haavisto 74-26 in a second round.
It can already be said that Niinistö will get no such overwhelming victory.
Examples from history show that in an election of two candidates, the support given to both will usually end up being fairly close to 50 per cent.
Niiniistö, the long-time favourite, seems to be liked by all groups of the Finnish public.
Last week’s HS Gallup said that he is equally popular among men and women, and in all age-groups and at all levels of education.
Niinistö's support is overwhelming among backers of the National Coalition Party, but he is also the clear second-choice candidate among supporters of all parties except the Left Alliance.
On the evening of the elections, none of the losing candidates came out to publicly endorse either of the winners, and there might not necessarily be any bequeathing of votes.
One might nevertheless predict that most supporters of the Finns Party, the Centre, and the Christian Democrats will vote for Niinistö in the second round. Haavisto will simply not do for conservative voters.
The Left Alliance will go behind Haavisto, and so will a large proportion of Social Democrats and voters of the Swedish People’s Party.
The second round will be, to some extent, a competition between those with conservative values and those with liberal values, as well as between the political right and left, but the basic starting point is that it is an election between two individuals - Niinistö and Haavisto.
And this is where Haavisto has a chance. Haavisto’s campaign is in the midst of a dazzling surge. An indication of this is that his support on the actual election day was no less than eight percentage points higher than he got in advance votes. Niinistö, by contrast, lost five points.
On the basis of the election result, Haavisto is a candidate of the Helsinki region and Uusimaa.
According to polls, he is more popular among women than among men. And he is above all a candidate of the young and well-educated. Haavisto needs quickly to turn the Facebook frenzy that surrounds him to a craze affecting all of Finland.
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 23.1.2012
MARKO JUNKKARI / Helsingin Sanomat
marko.junkkari@hs.fi
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| 23.1.2012 - TODAY |
 NEWS ANALYSIS: It looks like this will turn out to be a real contest |
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