NEWS ANALYSIS: Patria scandal had little effect on Slovenia election

Janez Janša retained popularity, but narrowly lost

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By Ilkka Ahtiainen
     
      There will be a change in government in Slovenia. The result of Sunday’s Parliamentary election leaves no room for guesswork, although at this writing it still needs to be officially confirmed.
      Social Democrat Borut Pahor, 44, will be the next Prime Minister, and in the coming weeks the composition of his centre-left coalition will be revealed.
      Contrary to what one might of expected on the basis of the final weeks of the election campaign, arms deals with Finland, which have been cast in a questionable light, did not decide the outcome.
     
“The Patria case ultimately excited the media more than the citizens”, says political researcher Samo Uhan of the University of Ljubljana.
      This view is backed up by the low voter turnout: 62 per cent, which was only slightly higher than four years ago.
     
The conservative SDS party of Prime Minister Janez Janša lost only one of its 29 seats, even though Janša himself had to squirm in the web of bribery allegations.
      “He got out of the situation reasonably well. A bigger problem is that Jansa’s charisma has eaten at the profiles of the other government parties”, said social scientist Janko Prunk.
     
Both conservative partners in Janša’s government coalition suffered crushing losses, and personal relations with Janša also suffered.
      Janša is also not finding an ally in the third party that backed his coalition, DeSUS, which promotes the interests of pensioners.
      “If one looks at the programme of DeSUS, it is more of a leftist, than a conservative party”, Samo Uhan says.
      The party’s chairman Karl Erjavec said after the election that he is ready to join Pahor’s government.
     
The success of the pensioners’ party clearly shows that Patria did not end up being much of an electoral weapon in the Slovenian Parliamentary elections.
      Erjavec was the defence minister in Janša’s government and had final responsibility for the armoured vehicle deal with Patria. In spite of this, DeSUS nearly doubled its share of the vote.
      “The voters at large were interested in social questions especially now that economic times are expected to weaken”, Uhan said.
      In his view, Janša’s economic priorities had been seen by voters as manifestations of hard economic neo-liberalism.
      Prime ministerial candidate Pahor has said that the Patria case will be removed form the political agenda, and left to the lawyers.
      And what about Janša?
      “His party remains strong, its supporters are loyal as soldiers. An opposition will be formed under Janša’s leadership, which will engage in tough politics”, says Janko Prunk.
      Slovenia’s coming government might include a name that is of interest to Finns: Ivo Vajgl is a strong candidate for the post of foreign minister, for the second time in his career.
      Vajgl has served as Slovenia’s Ambassador to Scandinavia, accredited to Finland as well.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 23.2008


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Slovenia police reject accusations of Patria information leak (10.9.2008)
  Slovenian Prime Minister denies being offered bribes (9.9.2008)
  Slovenia threatens to suspend Patria deal (8.9.2008)
  Slovenia sends diplomatic note to Finland over YLE bribery allegations (5.9.2008)
  Slovenian government intends to sue YLE management over Patria bribery claims (4.9.2008)

ILKKA AHTIAINEN / Helsingin Sanomat
ilkka.ahtiainen@hs.fi