NEWS ANALYSIS: The voice of Finland: audible, but still rather quiet

Getting better cards in the foreign policy game takes time

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By Kari Huhta
     
      The adrenaline was flowing two years ago as Finnish foreign policy was being implemented in the aftermath of the war between Russia and Georgia. Finland had a side role in negotiations on ending the war. It was the year when Finland held the chairmanship of the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and Finnish visibility was at a high. Goals of international influence were tuned upward.
      So has Finland managed to maintain its momentum in foreign policy and to raise in terms of influence into the same series as Sweden and Norway - as countries greater than their size? There is still some way to go. On the basis of two years of experience, it would appear that there are few instant prizes in international politics. The voice of Finland has been in much heavier use, but it can still be recognised as the same little voice that it was before.
     
Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb (Nat. Coalition Party) says that he is not the right one to judge whether or not the weight of Finland in foreign affairs has grown, but he nevertheless lists a number of achievements from a couple of years back. There is no shortage of events. Finland has been active in the EU, has invited ministers to the Saariselkä resort, and has nurtured bilateral relations with a long list of countries in addition to Russia, ranging from nations in Asia, to Africa, to the Middle East.
     
The active Stubb is clearly one part of Finland’s efforts to raise its profile. He is a strong figure at EU meetings. Journalists of other countries know how to get a ten-second sound bite from him into which the matter needs to be concentrated.
      Stubb is positive. When news of Finland’s first-place finish in the survey by Newsweek magazine was in the news, the items often included a picture of Stubb and his comment. He was not sought out in the same way for a comment on news of the death in the sauna competition.
      At the same time President Tarja Halonen is setting up networks especially in international organisations linked with development questions, and she meets with Russian leaders very conspicuously. Minister of Finance Jyrki Katainen (Nat. Coalition Party) put Finland in a good position when the economic crisis in Greece was being put out.
     
Each achievement improves the weak hand that Finland was dealt when the cards of geography were handed out. However, there needs to be very many of these achievements, and each of them can be celebrated only for a very short time.
      For example, Finland was a beneficiary when Stubb defended the EU’s new Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton, from whom EU civil servants tried to grab power. However, since then the EU’s large member states have also come to the feeding trough, and it takes work to maintain the advantage.
      But member states such as France and Germany have also started to emphasise direct bilateral relations with Russia again. This means that Finland’s possible special know-how is of less use. It could also explain to some degree why Russia, in spite of its good personal relations, bickers with Finland over everyday matters. Whether Russia is a great power or not, it remains Finland’s only security policy risk.
     
Relations with the Untied States are undoubtedly good, but there is nothing exceptional there. The pace of visits between the countries has not accelerated.
      What would be needed for rapid changes to occur in Finland’s position would be for events of the same calibre as the signing of the Mideast peace agreement in Oslo in 1993. While waiting for something like that to happen, the current trends will continue. Finland and Turkey will propose new peace mediation projects at the UN in September, and in the winter the EU foreign ministers will again be at Saariselkä, and next year there are plans for an Arctic summit in Rovaniemi.
      Behind the scenes Finland will continue its campaign to become one of the rotating members of the UN Security Council in 2013. It is comforting that Finland’s status does not depend on whether or not it gets into the Security Council, but you can’t win if you don’t buy the lottery ticket.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 22.8.2010


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Stubb: Relationship with Russia is no “special relationship” (19.8.2010)
  Stubb: EU threatens to turn in on itself (20.5.2010)
  Parliament passes loan to Greece after acrimonious debate (14.5.2010)
  Stubb hosts EU meeting at resort in Lapland (15.3.2010)
  Finnish-Russian relations under strain during OSCE Chairmanship (7.10.2007)

See also:
  Tarja Halonen´s UN legacy (Finland and the Security Council) 22.12.2009

KARI HUHTA / Helsingin Sanomat
kari.huhta@hs.fi