NEWS ANALYSIS: Wildfires could become a political problem in Russia

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By Jussi Niemeläinen
     
      On Sunday a seemingly hopeless battle against wildfires continued in Russia. On Sunday a total of 550 fires were noted mainly in Russia’s European regions.
      The wildfires have been raging for more than a week. Thousands have been left homeless, hundreds have sought hospital treatment, and at least 52 people have died.
      A large part of central Russia is suffering from smoke, which is made all the more irritating by the fires in peat bogs.
      For instance, Moscow was covered in thick smoke for a third day running. Air quality remains so bad that officials are urging people to stay indoors, but the smoke makes its way in there as well.
     
Tens of millions of Russians are suffering from the wildfires, and they have become the main topic of debate. This means that for those in power the natural disaster is also turning into a genuine political problem.
      The past summer has been exceptionally hot and dry. People certainly understand that, and the fires that result from this, but officials are being criticised for their slow reactions and their poor preparation for the situation.
      On the internet, questions are raised about the modernisation projects of President Dmitri Medvedev and his talk about nanotechnology in a situation in which the country apparently does not have enough fire engines. In Nizhni Novgorod, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was confronted by an angry crowd of people who had lost their homes, who felt that the government was not doing anything.
      The Prime Minister was practically poked in the chest.
     
However, even more troublesome for those in power is the silent majority who squint their eyes in the smoke.
      Parliamentary elections will be held in Russia next year, and analysts believe that the wildfires will be reflected in the popularity of the leading party, United Russia. The party has controlled the regions for years, so it is easily blamed for the fires and the smoke.
     
The party, which is under Putin’s leadership, has been losing popularity on other levels as well. It was less successful than it expected to be in the local elections in March. There were questions about the elections, but locally, support for the party was so low that it had to concede defeat.
      Behind the decline are corruption, as well as difficulties caused by the economic crisis; generally speaking, increases in prices and various fees. They even led to demonstrations in the late winter, which remained local, because the causes of anger did not cross regional borders.
      Now there is a cause for anger which does transcend borders. There are fires in 22 regions, and a state of emergency in seven.
     
This is naturally understood in Moscow as well, even though the success of the party has no direct impact on the position of Medvedev and Putin. Nevertheless, it would be easiest for them if the election could be won as honestly as possible.
      Putin has continued to tour the areas affected by the destruction, and criticised local leaders for their inadequate response. Last week he responded for the first time to an attack by an anonymous blogger. An aide of Medvedev, meanwhile, wrote in a government publication, accusing local mayors of failure, while praising regional leaders. Mayors are elected, while regional leaders are not.
     
Some have seen in Putin’s travels the launch of a campaign for the 2012 Presidential elections. However, when the country is in crisis, there is probably more than mere political calculation involved.
      Putin possibly knows that a hierarchical system which seeks to find a guilty party will not necessarily produce the right information for the leaders. It is better to see for one’s self.
     
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 9.8.2010


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Smoke from forest fires in Russia spreads across Finland during weekend (9.8.2010)

JUSSI NIEMELÄINEN / Helsingin Sanomat
jussi.niemelainen@hs.fi