National Coalition Party win ringing election endorsement

SDP relegated to third place; Centre Party lose seats but remain largest party

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With all the votes in, the big winners in the Parliamentary Election are the opposition National Coalition Party under Jyrki Katainen; the party gained 10 seats and narrowly fell short of becoming the largest party in the country.
      The main government partners - the Centre Party and the Social Democrats - both lost ground, with the SDP shedding eight seats and the Centrists four.
      Even so, the Centre Party under Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen managed to hold on to pole position with 23.1% and 51 seats against the 22.3 % and 50 seats of the NCP. The SDP collected 21.4% and look to receive 45 seats in the new Parliament, a serious disappointment for party leader and Finance Minister Eero Heinäluoma.
     
     
The percentages and seats were as follows:
     
      Centre Party 23.1% (51 -4)
      National Coalition Party (Cons.) 22.3% (50 +10)
      Social Democrats 21.4% (45 -8)
      Left Alliance 8.8% (17 -2)
      Greens 8.5% (15 +1)
      Swedish People's Party 4.5% (9 +1)
      Christian Democrats 4.9% (7 +0)
      True Finns 4.0% (5 +2)
      Others 2.6% (1 +0)
     
     
The time for analysis of the results and why things went so well for the moderate conservatives of the NCP and so badly for the Social Democrats is still ahead, but one thing appears certain: as Finland shifts towards the right in what can only be described as an NCP landslide (in a country noted for small electoral swings), it is hard to envisage the new government being anything but a centre-right coalition.
      One possibility put forward by TV pundits on election night is a combination of the Centre Party, the National Coalition Party, and the Swedish People's Party, who bucked the trend of government parties by actually gaining one seat to a total of nine.
      The Left Alliance lost two seats and will have 17 seats. The Greens will have 15 MPs in the new assembly, a gain of one. The Christian Democrats have seven seats, showing no change. Among the small parties, the populist True Finns, who were really the only grouping to campaign on an EU platform (the party are nationalist in tone and strongly EU-sceptic), also had a good night, adding two seats for a total of five.
     
The listing of the names of those who made it to the Parliament in Arkadianmäki, those who did not, and those of the previous contingent who fell by the wayside is dealt with elsewhere. Nevertheless, it is necessary to point out here that the former Finance Minister and former National Coalition Party chairman Sauli Niinistö collected a phenomenal vote haul in Uusimaa - more than 60,000 votes, or almost 10% of the party's total in the country as a whole. This shattered all previous records.
      Welcome though the votes are, Niinistö's massive popular support is likely to be a serious challenge for the young and relatively inexperienced chairman of the NCP, 36-year-old Jyrki Katainen.
     
Despite very active advance voting, the eventual voter turnout fell short of the 2003 figure and at 67.8% was the lowest post-war figure for a general election. In 2003, the turnout fell just short of 70%.
      The larger advance turnout also produced some changes on election day itself, as the advance results failed to display the anticipated strong showing by the predominantly rural Centre Party. Apparently an increasing number of city-voters had also chosen to cast their ballots ahead of Sunday.
     
The Finnish Broadcasting Company YLE's election projection  (see below), published at around 21:30 while the count was still progressing, proved remarkably accurate. It gauged correctly the relationship between the three major parties, and allocated seats almost perfectly.
      The most recent opinion polls had shown burgeoning support for the NCP, but few had suggested they would actually overhaul the Social Democrats.
      Another curiosity of the result was that in the week prior to the election more than 40% of those polled had said they would prefer to see a Centre-SDP coalition continuing in government, rather than a centre-right government of the Centre Party and NCP or a "red-blue" coalition of the Social Democrats and the National Coalition Party. Voter behaviour has now made the first-mentioned so-called "red-earth" combination an extremely unlikely proposition.
     
The Finnish Broadcasting Company YLE issued its election prognosis at 21:30, when just over 66% of the votes cast had been counted, including the advance votes. The announcement was delayed as the large number of advance votes - 1.2 million - slowed the overall count somewhat.
      The anticipated numbers of seats in the new Parliament are given in brackets, with the plus/minus comparison from 2003 in italics):
      Centre Party 23.0% (51 -4)
      Social Democrats 21.8% (45 -8)
      National Coalition Party (Cons.) 22.1% (50 +10)
      Left Alliance 9.0% (17 -2)
      Greens 8.3% (14 +0)
      Swedish People's Party 4.5% (9 +1)
      Christian Democrats 4.8% (8 +1)
      True Finns 3.9% (5 +2)
      Others 2.6% (1 +0)
     

More on this subject:
 Niinistö makes triumphant return to politics
 Number of over-sixties in Finnish Parliament grows

Previously in HS International Edition:
  SUNDAY EVENING 23:55: ELECTION SPECIAL - BIG GAINS FOR OPPOSITION NATIONAL COALITION PARTY; SDP SUFFERS DEFEAT AT POLLS (18.3.2007)

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