New US strategy has Finland reconsidering goals in Afghanistan

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The change in the strategy of the United States in Afghanistan could make Finland reassess its reasons for having forces in the country. About 100 Finnish peacekeepers are currently taking part in the NATO-led ISAF operation.
      “Now we are in a crisis management and reconstruction operation. But if the main focus of the operation is no longer that, but rather anti-terrorist action, we will have to think if we are working in vain. If the overall goals are downgraded, we must think about why we are in Afghanistan”, says Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, specialising in US foreign policy and crisis management.
     No Western country wants to stay in Afghanistan forever. However, the United States now seems to feel that a sufficient goal will be the stabilisation of Afghanistan to the extent that terrorist organisations such as al-Qaeda would not have a foothold there.
     
In Finland and the rest of Europe, politicians justify participation in the operation by saying that the countries are helping Afghanistan establish the rule of law.
     “This means that Finland would be there for decades longer than the Americans”, Salonius-Pasternak notes.
     “If and when the Untied States changes its strategy, it needs to be reflected somehow in Finland, and in the framework of NATO and the EU. Or at least it should. It may not, for political reasons”, the researcher laughs.
     
There is certainly another way of looking at it: pressure on the Europeans, who are reluctant to take on combat duties, could also ease.
     “This [the change in the US strategy] is also beneficial in that it will free allies and partners for tasks that are more suitable for them politically and militarily, for instance, nation building”, says Lieutenant-Colonel Mika Kerttunen of the Department of Strategic and Defence Studies at the National Defence University.
     Kerttunen is cautiously optimistic about the greater focus of the United States on Afghanistan, involving a more aggressive stance, moving out of the cities, and taking control of wider areas of land.
     
With a weak central government, the United States is working to establish closer ties with the provinces. Working together with the Afghan Ministry of the Interior, the US is recruiting local armed groups to help keep order in rural areas.
     “The danger is that weaponry and training will end up in the wrong hands. But it is also clear that long term solutions cannot be made by outsiders”, Kerttunen says.
     Charly Salonius-Pasternak is pessimistic about President Barack Obama’s chances for success in Afghanistan, noting that even if the US is successful to some degree in Afghanistan, the Taleban would need to be uprooted from neighbouring Pakistan as well, which is a completely different story.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Finland to send more troops to Afghanistan next summer (12.12.2008)
  Finnish commander optimistic about progress in Afghanistan (15.10.2008)
  President Halonen: NATO wants more Finns in Afghanistan (4.4.2008)
  NATO measures could cut military presence in North Afghanistan where Finns operate (29.2.2008)

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