News Analysis: Parties launch NATO debate again

Focus on Russia, rather than USA

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By Kari Huhta
     
      In recent debate on Finnish foreign policy, a story has been circulated about something that happened at the NATO summit in Lisbon a month ago.
      According to the story, after the meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, Finnish Ambassador Aapo Pölhö asked Russian Ambassador Dmitri Rogozin what the leaders of NATO and Russia were talking about in the council.
      “I won’t say”, responded Rogozin in a taunting manner.
      Pölhö himself says that the story is not quite accurate, but a lower-ranking Russian diplomat had indeed refused to reveal to Finland information of the joint threat evaluation of NATO.
     
The message of the story is that Finland should join NATO if it wants to know what the West and Russia are actually saying to each other.
      The importance of the NATO-Russia Council as a forum of European “hard security” has been emphasised, first by Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb (Nat. Coalition Party) and later by Minister of Finance and National Coalition Party leader Jyrki Katainen.
     
Apparently there is talk within the National Coalition Party over whether or not the party might benefit after all from a debate on NATO during the campaign preceding the April Parliamentary elections.
      A small number of votes hinge on NATO, compared with economic questions, but even small numbers of votes can be significant.
      The warming of relations between NATO and Russia has changed the setup in such a way that those who oppose NATO membership can find themselves on the defensive, whereas previously the National Coalition Party would have had to defend its pro-NATO stance.
     
The previous attempt to turn NATO into an election issue came in February from the Social Democrats.
      The party said that membership in the alliance should not be sought in the next four-year Parliamentary term.
      SDP chairwoman Jutta Urpilainen challenged the other parties to state in their Parliamentary election campaigns if they want to change Finland’s relationship with NATO.
      This was an attempt to goad National Coalition Party into defending its pro-NATO views, causing it to lose some votes to the SDP.
     
The National Coalition Party took evasive action and said that there is no point in discussing the matter, as there is no widespread support for joining NATO in the next electoral term.
      The party has not yet changed its stance, but the temptation to turn the setup around and annoy the Social Democrats is clearly a considerable one.
      The National Coalition Party is trying to turn the Social Democrats’ tactical decision to lock the stand on NATO for four more years to its own advantage. The decision is not being presented as simply a limitation on relations with the United States, but rather as a hindrance to closer relations with Russia.
     
However, no great debate on NATO is to be expected.
      The opinions of the Finns on membership have not changed significantly.
      A new survey by the Advisory Board for Defence Information revealed that just a quarter of respondents support membership in NATO.
     
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 20.12.2010
     


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Ahtisaari: Staying outside NATO weakens image projected by Finland (20.12.2010)
  Poll: Anti-NATO sentiment eases somewhat (6.4.2010)
  Niinistö: NATO membership awaits at end of European road (12.6.2009)

KARI HUHTA / Helsingin Sanomat
kari.huhta@hs.fi