OSCE facing a clutch of problems as Finland prepares to take charge

Tough challenges in prospect in relations with Russia

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By Kari Huhta in Vienna
     
      Dark and threatening clouds hang over the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, just as Finland prepares to serve as the OSCE Chairman from the beginning of 2008.
      At the hub of the problems is Russia.
      According to the most pessimistic of predictions, the entire OSCE could implode on itself, or at least face paralysis, when Russia attempts to break the OSCE's right to monitor the progress of democracy and human rights in its member-states.
     
Finland's year in the chair is also predicted to bring challenges for the country's bilateral relations with Russia.
      Finnish assessments of the state of play within the OSCE concur that there are serious problems on the horizon, but fall short of the darkest forecasts.
      The country preparing to take on the chairmanshop of the international body should be "committed to those agreements that have been made in the past", says Antti Turunen, who has headed Finland's Permanent Mission to the OSCE in Vienna since February.
      Aside from facing up to Russian opposition, this means activity in the fifty-six OSCE member countries, some of which are still under dictatorships or have unresolved armed conflicts.
     
The Chairman-in-Office will be the Minister for Foreign Affairs Ilkka Kanerva, and Kanerva alone, so there will be none of the problems of setting extra Finnish places around the negotiating table as has occurred at EU summits.
      A separate team has been established within the Foreign Ministry to handle OSCE affairs for 2008.
     
The list of OSCE problems is a lengthy one, and it has only become longer as Russia's relations have cooled of late with the countries of Western Europe and the United States.
      The Organisation's achievements in the security policy sphere could be in the balance as Russia threatens to go ahead with a moratorium on the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), as President Vladimir Putin suggested in April, in response to US missile defence proposals.
      Disagreements over the position of Kosovo in the Balkans also threaten to resurrect "deep-frozen" conflicts elsewhere.
      The OSCE should furthermore be monitoring the upcoming Russian elections among others, and Russia may not be overly eager to welcome in the monitors.
     
Things could all come to a head on the issue of whether Kazakhstan - which has an ally in Moscow - is chosen to be the next OSCE chairman after Finland, in spite of the country's inadequate levels of democracy.
      "From Helsinki to Helsinki", was the curt description of the OSCE arc delivered by one expert in Vienna. Just as with most others who agreed to be interviewed, his comments on the outlook for the OSCE were made specifically on condition of anonymity.
      The foundations of the OSCE were laid in the Finnish capital in the summer of 1975, with the Helsinki Accords, the signing of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe.
     
The principles of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, including the freedom of thought, conscience, religion, or belief, which were signed in 1975 were much to the fore as the Soviet Union and its satellites disintegrated at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 90s.
      The Helsinki gathering spawned an organisation that monitors elections, human rights, and freedom of expression in countries that should be on the road towards democracy.
      Russia's attitude towards OSCE democracy initiatives has changed over the years from cool to downright icy.
     
In the view of the pessimists, Moscow already sees the hindrances the OSCE presents as outweighing any help it might provide.
      Russian diplomats comment that what they are calling for is nothing more than a greater degree of even-handedness from the organisation.
      That was also the message coming from the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov when he spoke at the OSCE on Wednesday of last week.
      Nevertheless, the general consensus is that the situation within the OSCE has changed in fundamental fashion.
      "The romantic period of European unification in the 1990s is done and dusted, and now we should be looking at what we can do with the OSCE", said one Russian diplomat, again anonymously.
     
According to one Western analyst, back in the early 1990s, Russia was still sketching out the OSCE in terms of a pan-European security structure, but such thoughts waned first with the aerial assault by NATO in Kosovo in 1999, and further with the rise of Vladimir Putin to the Russian Presidency in 2000.
      The crucial blow came four years later, at the end of 2004. It took place in Ukraine, when the "Orange Revolution" swept out of office an administration that was backed by Moscow, in a re-vote that was called for and assisted by the OSCE monitors, who questioned the legitimacy of the initial run-off election.
     
Since that time, Russia has done whatever it can to hamper the operations of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
      It has not been very successful at this, however, since the office was established in 1990 by a unanimous decision, and it would take no less to change its status.
      Within the OSCE as it is today, Russia does not even have a simple majority on its side. When the countries of the EU and NATO are supplemented by those who wish to join these two organisations, the "West" grouping can call on as many as 35 of the 56 member-states.
      The possible elevation of Kazakhstan to be Chairman-in-Office in 2009 would be a definite plus for Russia in its current outnumbered position.
      It could also help in turning the agenda away from matters relating to democracy.
     
Defeat in this endeavour would lead on the other hand to consequences whose severity would depend on just how bad the atmosphere within the OSCE had already become.
      Thus far at least, Great Britain and the United States oppose the nomination of Kazakhstan on the grounds of the country's poor democracy track record.
      On Tuesday last, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed into law a constitutional amendment which would effectively allow him to seek re-election as many times as he wishes - president for life.
      Then again, Kazakhstan has a great deal by way of oil and natural gas reserves, and it is still some time yet until the November foreign ministers' meeting at which any decision will be made.
      "The chairmanship of the OSCE only lasts for 12 months, but energy agreements will be in force long after that", said one anonymous source close to the OSCE.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 24.5.2007


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Security policy for all (Column, 15.5.2007)

Links:
  OSCE (Wikipedia)

KARI HUHTA / Helsingin Sanomat
kari.huhta@hs.fi