Olli Rehn – Finnish Commissioner in the centre of the crisis
By Anssi Miettinen
A black car crawls through the drizzle one evening in Brussels.
In the back seat is a man from Mikkeli with a serious look on his face.
He has many things on his mind.
Most of these are linked with big and difficult questions - at stake is nothing less than rescuing all of Europe, but now Olli Rehn is supposed to think up a joke.
Rehn needs something light for a speech which he will soon deliver to German bankers.
The commissioner’s own guidelines for speechwriting, part 1:Establish contact with the audience on a matter that has meaning for them.
“I haven’t used Gerd Müller for years. I could try that now”, he says to his German subordinate, economist Peer Ritter.
It is Tuesday, November 8th. This day, too, has not been a good one for Europe.
Greece, on the brink of bankruptcy, does not have a functioning government.
The interest rates on Italian state bonds are inching up toward the pain threshold. And politics is running on empty. Rehn has been sitting for two days at meetings of finance ministers, and things are not moving forward as had been hoped.
Italy’s political situation is also confused. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is preparing the announcement of his resignation, and even that is whipping up more uncertainty.
In different parts of Europe people are waiting, for initiatives, for ideas - rabbits out of hats - something that would put an end to this long-running nightmare, and increasingly, the expectation is that Rehn, the Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, would have the answers, and he is not exactly glowing with optimism.
“These recent days have been when the whole crisis has bottomed out”, Rehn says in a low voice on the back seat of his official car.
This has not been reflected in Rehn’s behaviour.
As he rushes from one meeting to another, during phone calls, and as schedules stretch out, he has been himself - proper, polite, calm, and contemplative.
But now Rehn is tired, and he says as much.
He lets down his guard, and the man peeks out from underneath the shell of the professional politician.
He swears aloud.
Rehn is angered by Greek politicians, and especially Prime Minister Georgios Papandreou, whose unexpected announcement of a referendum pushed Europe off the rails again, and put Papandreou himself out of a job.
“We had worked so hard for the rescue package since the summer ... We got a satisfactory result at the October summit. And then ... then everything went back to square one.”
The Commissioner looks pensively out of the window of the car.
“The human mind works in such a way that if you’ve done really lots of work and then the rug is pulled out from under your feet, then the only natural reaction is complete frustration.”
The black official car stops in front of the Brussels Museum of Musical Instruments.
That is where the evening’s gathering is taking place, and the Germans are waiting.
Rehn is the star of the show.
At first he apologises for speaking in English. “My German isn’t in very good shape. For that, I blame footballer Gerd Müller, the idol of my youth. I was also supposed to become a professional football player. I practiced my ball control so much that my German studies suffered.”
The warmup seems to work on the bankers. Gerd Müller was a hero of their youth as well.
The 49-year-old Olli Rehn is getting to be more famous than many professional football players.
At least he is the most visible Finnish politician in decades.
He keeps giving statements as he moves from one evening, country, and meeting to another.
He gives warnings and reassurances, prompts and plans, makes proposals for solving the crisis.
In the world’s economic journals Rehn no longer needs any introduction.
Rehn is already getting to be a familiar face to the citizens of countries in crisis - a kind of European-scale version of Finnish Finance Ministry official Raimo Sailas: a serious bureaucrat calling for tough budgetary discipline and painful reforms.
But how much power does Rehn wield and what is the power like? Could he actually be the most internationally influential politician in Finnish history?
Would it even be possible to imagine more significant tasks in peacetime?
After all, what is it at stake is the rescue of monetary union and the entire EU.
Rehn’s role has grown as the crisis has deepened.
A few weeks ago Rehn was named Vice President of the Commission, with the euro as his special area of responsibility.
The post sounds impressive, and his gross income rose by a couple of thousand euros to EUR 22,531 a month.
Although there are a total of eight vice presidents, Rehn’s appointment sent a clear message.
He has become a person who enjoys the confidence of Commission President José Manuel Barroso - a right-hand man of sorts.
The appointment was also the result of the never-ending power games of the key bodies of the EU - the European Commission, the European Council comprising the member states, and the European Parliament.
The Lisbon Treaty, which took effect a couple of years ago, was supposed to clarify the division of power, but the crisis has shown that decision-making in the eurozone at least is confused, and responsibilities are vague.
With Rehn’s appointment, the Commission wants to show that it wants a stronger grip on the euro.
It wants more power in the eurogroup, which includes the finance ministers of the 17 eurozone countries, and where the most important political decisions are made.
Hopes are being nurtured in the Commission that next summer the Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner would take on the task of President of the eurozone, when the term of the present holder of the office, Jean-Claude Juncker, comes to an end.
Only then would Rehn become a real supercommissioner - a true Mr. Euro.
“I am not campaigning for the post”, Rehn says. “It is a matter for the member states.”
It is known that some of the member states would like to set up a new organisation around the common currency that would be separate from the Commission.
The lighting in Berlyamont, the main building of the Commission, is subdued, as it usually is on a Sunday.
Other buildings can also be seen from the tenth-floor window through the fog outside.
At 4 p.m., Olli Rehn has arrived at a meeting of his cabinet in jeans and a collared shirt, tieless.
This is the dress code of the Sunday meetings - also on this day, November 6th. The Commissioner’s face is flushed after a run.
“Finally I had enough time to do some exercise. Yesterday I even had the chance to play football”, Rehn says, happily.
Sunday has not been just a day of rest, however.
Before his run, Rehn has given the Reuters news agency a carefully-considered statement, in which he calls on Greece to set up a “government of national unity”.
The statement is exceptional, and is certain to cause irritation in Greece. The Commission, which represents Europe as a whole, has not been in the habit of interfering in the government formation talks of its member states. Now the cup has run over.
The statement fills the Sunday news vacuum, just as it was supposed to.
“Where is Amadeu?” Rehn asks the members of the cabinet, as the press spokesman Amadeu Alfataj Tardio has not shown up.
“I just sent a text message. I think he’s on the phone, as statements are coming from Reuters”, says Rehn’s cabinet chief Timo Pesonen.
The ten-member cabinet comprises Rehn’s closest advisors. Five of them are Finns, many of them are economists. The language of the meeting is English.
Rehn begins by talking about the intense G20 meeting a week earlier.
Because of the Greek surprise it turned into a crisis meeting.
People had to fly to Cannes a day in advance.
The most important meetings were by no means in the actual session, Rehn says.
Instead, a small club of top European persons of influence met in the smaller conference rooms of the venue of the meeting.
The new club has a name: the Frankfurt Group.
It was actually formed by chance on October 19th at the Frankfurt Opera House, where the retirement of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was being marked.
But there was not enough time for just celebrating, as the spread of the crisis had to be prevented.
Consequently, the key figures in the save-the-euro operation gathered in a meeting room at the Opera House: German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker, ECB President Mario Draghi, IMF Director-General Christine Lagarde, Commission President José Manuel Barroso, and Commissioner Olli Rehn.
The euro crisis has reached a point in which new power centres and creative solutions are emerging. Traditional political arenas are not sufficient.
At the meeting of the Frankfurt Group in Cannes, Merkel and Sarkozy gave Rehn direct instructions on developing the crisis fund so that it might lend more money to the problem countries.
“Merkel and Sarkozy gave me the authority to speed up preparations for leveraging the EFSF. This means that my head is on the block if things do not happen according to the schedule that has been agreed upon”, says Rehn to his cabinet.
The aim is to keep the Frankfurt Group as small as possible. This will undoubtedly annoy many member states.
US President Barack Obama was invited to the meetings of the Frankfurt Group in Cannes.
At that time Obama got a quick course on the distribution of power in the eurozone.
“Obama has a background in community organising in Chicago. It seems as if he had taken on the same role with the euro leaders. It is as if an enthusiastic elementary school teacher had stepped into the room. He immediately asked the right questions and then made astute summaries. He is certainly a quick study, I must say”, Rehn says to his cabinet.
Obama, Merkel, Sarkozy...and Rehn.
The man from the Mikkelin Palloilijat football team is in the starting line-up.
But is he a key mover and shaker, or merely a water-carrier, an errand boy?
The euro crisis has seen power splintered in different directions, and nobody can achieve anything alone.
Power is in the hands of the member states, the Parliament, the market, the Commission, the central banks and now even with the Chinese, whose money would be sorely needed in Europe.
Power is in the hands of whoever has money.
Germany has money, which is why Merkel’s word now weighs more than ever.
Some say that the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank has too much independent sway over monetary policy.
France, under the leadership of Nicolas Sarkozy, is also an important wielder of power.
However, the country’s importance is waning as the interest rates on the country’s bonds increase.
The fourth concentration of power is the Commission - Barroso and Rehn.
The Commission does not have deep pockets, and it does not decide on the biggest matters.
“The Commission is only as strong as the member states allow it to be”, says one EU expert.
The Commission with its powerful official mechanism is nevertheless a very important factor in assembling the political puzzle.
It proposes, mediates, guards, and enlightens.
Rehn actually has rather little independent decision-making power based on the law - limited mainly to the oversight of financial discipline.
But Rehn will get more authority very soon. He can propose fines for faltering countries.
This is another reason for the move to make him a vice president.
The aim was to prevent other commissioners from interfering with possible fines in order to protect their own countries.
What does Rehn himself think about his position?
A fireman, an architect, a police officer: Rehn’s interpretations of his role are multiple.
In crisis management - the firefighter’s job - Rehn and the Commission work “in the space between a think-tank and a bridge builder.”
As one of the architects, he plans the future of the Economic and Monetary Union. This inevitably means that there will be a shift of economic policy power from the member states to Brussels.
As a policeman, he sees to it that the member states obey the rules.
Rehn has one metaphor for his role and that of the Commission, which exceptionally is not linked with football.
“I am not necessarily even the conductor of the orchestra - Juncker or Van Rompuy might better fit those roles - I am more the concertmaster, the first violin, who is capable of influencing the music if he handles the job well.”
Even though the distance from the European Parliament to the Council is a short one, that distance is also travelled by car.
This allows Rehn to give a “doorstep” - to speak with journalists waiting at the door.
“What is the most important thing about Greece?” Rehn asks his spokesman who is sitting on the back seat.
It is now Monday, November 7th, and during the afternoon Rehn has already met with Greek Minister of Finance Evangelos Venizelos and has been questioned by Members of the European Parliament.
“Concentrate on the Venizelos meeting, and on the fact that we have a real agreement with Greece which would bring credibility if it were implemented. The events in Greece cast a shadow, and now it is important to move forward quickly in Greece... What is most important is political will, political decisiveness”, Amadeu Alfataj Tardio advises the Commissioner.
“I’ll take Greece, Italy, firewalls. I’ll be fairly brief”, Rehn says.
He starts to practice his statements out loud, in English.
“The meeting with Venizelos was constructive, and now it is necessary to strengthen confidence by setting up a government of national unity... as far as Italy is concerned, I will send a delegation to Rome already this week... Progress is being made in manoeuvring the EFSF...” Rehn mutters in the front seat.
The same sentences will soon be heard at the front door of the EU Council.
Dozens of journalists and photographers are jockeying for position to get the comments down.
Power is in the hands of the one who is listened to.
There are so many requests for interviews that they cannot all be accepted.
In the economic committee of the European Parliament, many of the questions are aimed specifically at Olli Rehn, even though the finance minister of the current Presidency holder is present.
Wielding influence through the public eye is a key part of the work of the Commissioner.
All of Europe needs to be reached through the media. The most important media are fed through leaks.
Rehn has a reputation in Brussels as a journalist-friendly politician.
EU journalists take an astoundingly positive view of the Finnish Commissioner. Rehn’s dry matter-of-fact style seems to inspire confidence.
“The Commission is a bit lost, and sometimes I feel that Rehn is one of its only pillars of support. We thought that he was a technocrat, but he has proven to be a tough politician. He is stubborn, and there is nothing soft or cuddly about him”, says an Irish journalist.
“I think that he is doing well. But he has no real power over big issues, as is the case with many member states. Germany is the one that dictates.”
According to the correspondent of an important American newspaper, Rehn is not prone to gaffes.
“He has a sharp political instinct. He has done quite well in difficult times. However, I think that he could have turned himself more into the face of Europe.”
The Brussels bureau chief of an important financial newspaper says that Rehn’s credibility has grown during the crisis. “If Germany and France had initially approved of the measures that he proposed, we might not be in this situation now. He is one of the few politicians who still hold credibility in the eyes of the market."
The journalists point out that Rehn’s credibility is also enhanced by the country of his birth.
Finland’s credit rating is among the best of all EU countries.
According to a Greek correspondent, Rehn should not interfere with Greece’s government formation process: “He has been a good mediator between Greece and Europe, all the way to the past few days. Generally speaking he has used his personality to calm this crazy situation.”
Not even a British newspaper correspondent who is justly famous for his anti-EU sentiments will stoop to running Rehn down.
However, in the European Parliament Rehn occasionally faces severe criticism, and there are some nasty jabs in his direction from Finland as well.
Rehn’s views are not always identical to policies taken by the Finnish government, and relations between Rehn and the Finnish Social Democratic Party were rather strained during the Greek loan guarantee dispute earlier this autumn.
Rehn enjoys high stature in Europe. Even his old weakness, the tendency to appear somewhat unexciting and grey, unexpectedly works to his advantage.
Everything seems to have fallen into place. After all, Rehn’s education is precisely suited for his present task.
Rehn, who studied economics and international politics, wrote his doctoral thesis on the economic strategies of small European countries.
He has to shove these medications down the throats of reluctant patients.
“My old friends in Mikkeli are having a good laugh, saying that the boy is finally doing a job that fits his education. This was said with only slight irony or sarcasm”, Rehn laughs.
From close inspection it is clear that Rehn enjoys his demanding task immensely.
But what in the world was Rehn thinking when he seriously considered entering the Finnish presidential race?
He had never been a popular favourite in Finland when he was a politician, not even among supporters of his own Centre Party.
And isn’t the operation to save Europe more important than domestic policy anyway?
“These are positive and responsible tasks in different ways. Nevertheless I bear responsibility for Finland and its international position. Naturally, the office of President of the Republic of Finland is influential.”
Rehn says that in the summer he wanted to see how the debt crisis would develop.
“In August the conclusion was quite a clear one. It would be an act of desertion to leave these tasks and responsibilities.”
Undoubtedly the experienced political player also understood that he would not have had any chance of actually being elected in Finland’s current political atmosphere.
In spite of his conspicuous political profile, he has not become “Our Olli” for the Finns.
He has been in Brussels so long that he now represents the EU to the Finns - the part of the EU where things have gone spectacularly wrong.
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 20.11.2011
Previously in HS International Edition:
Rehn: Europe teeters on brink of recession (11.11.2011)
Rehn expects agreement on ways European countries can support beleaguered banks (10.10.2011)
Rehn: new recession can be averted (26.9.2011)
ANSSI MIETTINEN / Helsingin Sanomat
anssi.miettinen@hs.fi
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| 22.11.2011 - THIS WEEK |
Olli Rehn – Finnish Commissioner in the centre of the crisis
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