Olympics 2004: Finnish expectations unusually low-key

PERSPECTIVE

Sari Multala

Maarit Lepomäki

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By Saska Snellman in Athens
     
      When the Athens Olympics grind into gear later today, Finnish expectations of success are uncommonly low. At these games, every medal gained will be a pleasant surprise.
      Even with this kind of low-key approach, many a sports fan probably coughed a little when the American sports magazine Sports Illustrated tipped Finland to secure only two medals: one for Sari Multala in the sailing and one for Maarit Lepomäki in the skeet shooting.
     
Unfortunately the magazine’s claims that two women will bring home the only bacon are given flanking support from a well-respected source. The Harvard-based Review of Economics and Statistics published in its latest issue an article in which statisticians Andrew Bernard and Meghan Busse predicted the medal-winning countries in Athens according to a calculation model they had generated.
     
The statisticians’ list contains the 34 best countries, but no matter which way up one holds the page, the word "Finland" does not appear. Down at the bottom of the pile, the pair have Georgia being offered three medals. Finland, one assumes, must be in line for an even smaller haul than that.
      Is this all complete nonsense, then? Not necessarily.
      Bernard and Busse published a similar list on the eve of the Sydney games four years ago. They achieved a 96% accuracy rate.
      The statisticians assert that success can be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy using four variables: population, GDP, previous Olympic success, and the booster effects of hosting the games.
     
Usually it is the big and the wealthy countries that grab all the silverware, but the statistics have to be adjusted in the case of a few nations. For instance, neither Canada nor Japan are big sports countries.
      Finland, on the other hand, has been a statistical anomaly in the other direction, but nowadays things are normalising.
      For the big old countries, the researchers anticipate a continued gradual decline, since there are stronger and stronger challengers coming out of the new nations. As recently as the Seoul Olympics of 1988, the ten biggest countries on the list took away more than 70% of the medals, but by 2000 and Sydney this was down to 55%.
      The United States are forecast to top the table, with 93 medals. It is unclear whether this figure has factored in the unknown quantity of doping. Medals these days have a habit of changing hands after the event...
      Sweden is looking to secure no fewer than 20 medals from the Olympics. The statisticians are a little more moderate in their projections: 11 medals to the neighbours.
     
The effects of hosting the games on national sporting success are dramatic, say the researchers. Hard work and the presence of a cheering sea of blue-and-white flags will, they argue, increase Greece’s haul from the 15 of Sydney to as many as 27 medals.
      Hearing this, one can only hope the "host’s bonus" is operating at full strength next year when Helsinki welcomes the IAAF Track and Field World Championships.
     
Helsingin Sanomat / First published in print 13.8.2004 Athens


Links:
  Olympics: Official Site

SASKA SAARIKOSKI / Helsingin Sanomat
saska.saarikoski@hs.fi