Opinion poll: SDP and Centre neck-and-neck

National Coalition Party still lags behind

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The main government parties, the Social Democrats and the Centre Party, are almost even in the race for public support, according to a fresh poll.
      The poll, commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by Suomen Gallup, gives the SDP 23.9 per cent support, against 23.7 per cent for the Centre Party. In a previous poll in October, the SDP had 0.1 per cent more and the Centre had 0.3 per cent less. Both the differences and the changes fit within the margin of error.
     
The main opposition group, the moderate conservative National Coalition Party, remains as far behind the main government parties as it was in October.
      The fresh poll gives the party 21.8 per cent support - two tenths of a point down from October.
     
Of the large political groups, the National Coalition Party is the only one to have launched its Parliamentary campaign.
      Neither the early launch, nor the announcement that Sauli Niinistö will run for Parliament again have managed to push up the party’s support figures.
      The National Coalition Party seems to have lost support since the aftermath of the Presidential elections early this year, when Sauli Niinistö finished in second place. In polls taken in April and June, the party got 22.7 per cent support, and in September it was getting 22.6 per cent.
      However, even this narrow change fits into the margin of error. Also within the margin is the lead that the Centre and the SDP have against the National Coalition Party.
     
Of the medium-sized parties, the Left Alliance is slightly ahead of the Green League, and has managed to increase its gap. The Left Alliance is getting 9.2 per cent support, against 8.8 per cent for the Greens. In October the numbers were 9.0 per cent for the Left Alliance, and 8.8 per cent for the Greens.
      Support for the small parties has stayed at the previous levels.
     
There was also little change in voter determination. Those who were very sure of their choice numbered 44 per cent (41 per cent in October), while 43 per cent were fairly sure (46 per cent in October). The National Coalition Party has the most determined supporters, while supporters of the Greens are most likely to waver.
      Voter determination appears to grow with the age of the individual.
     
The interviews for the poll were taken between November 14th and December 13th. A total of 2,363 Finns were interviewed by telephone. Finns of a variety of age groups were represented in the sampling, from all parts of the country with the exception of the Åland Islands.
      The margin of error with the larger parties is nearly two percentage points in either direction.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Gap between three largest parties continues to shrink (25.9.2006)

Helsingin Sanomat