Opinion polls almost score a bullseye

”Even a bit too accurate”, TNS Gallup director notes

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The opinion polls almost managed to score a bullseye in their last assays during the Finnish Presidential race.
      All opinion polls taken immediately prior to the second round completed last Sunday suggested that Sauli Niinistö’s share of the vote would be between 62% and 65%. In other words, the actual outcome of 62.6% fell in all polls within the margin of error of three percentage points.
      All pollsters can therefore congratulate themselves on a job well done, can they not, TNS Gallup director Juhani Pehkonen?
     
”No, one cannot think so. It is rather so that the polls hit too close this time. In a democracy, it cannot be ideal that gallup surveys turn out to be true”, Pehkonen charges.
      It came as a surprise to Pehkonen that the relative strength of the two parties remained so similar until the end.
     
Over the years, the accuracy of polls has improved. One explanation could be that since the 1990s, people have declared their opinions more openly.
      At the same time, the Finns have been divided into two factions.
      Young people are often ready to reveal for whom they are going to vote. Some of them even go so far as to post a picture of their own ballot - taken with a mobile phone in the voting booth - on the Web. We also saw in this last election a deluge of peiople decalring thei affiliation and voting intentions on Facebook and other social media sites.
      However, it is difficult to persuade the voters supporting traditional parties, aged 64 years and over, to reveal their opinions even in polls.
     
”They respect the secret ballot voting principle. Whatever election is in question, such people do not express their opinions publicly”, Pehkonen adds.
      TNS Gallup conducts the opinion polls commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Poll: Haavisto rising, Niinistö falling but still front-runner (3.1.2012)
  Poll: Niinistö maintains lead over Haavisto (31.1.2012)
  Poll: Niinistö´s lead narrows; Haavisto and Väyrynen in dead-heat for second place (17.1.2012)
  YLE presidential election poll shows Haavisto rising to second place (9.1.2012)

See also:
  Presidential poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming front-runner, Väyrynen support rising (15.11.2011)
  Poll: Niinistö remains overwhelming favourite in presidential race (18.10.2011)

Helsingin Sanomat