Overwhelming majority would re-elect President Halonen

Popularity of Prime Minister now greater than that of Niinistö

Tarja Halonen

Matti Vanhanen

Sauli Niinistö

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Incumbent President Tarja Halonen is the clear favourite in the choice of Finland's next President. The next presidential elections will be held in early 2006.
      Halonen's popularity is overwhelming when compared with Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen or former Conservative leader Sauli Niinistö.
      In an opinion poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat, Halonen was backed by 59 percent of all respondents. If this was the actual outcome of the first round of voting, Halonen would be re-elected directly in the first round.
      A second round between the top two names is required if no one receives over half of the votes in the first round.
     
The support for Vanhanen amounted to 15 percent, with Niinistö's figure only 12 percent. When compared with previous figures from last November, the Prime Minister has gained five percentage points in popularity, rising above long-time Minister of Finance Niinistö for the first time.
      No other candidates were named in the survey, but respondents could choose to answer "someone else".
      According to the HS survey, Halonen, the Social Democrat candidate, would receive plenty of votes from Centre and National Coalition supporters in the first round as well.
      Halonen is backed by Finnish women in particular: 73 percent of women named Halonen as their candidate in the first round. However, only 44 percent of men chose Halonen. When different age groups are compared, President Halonen's popularity is over 50 percent in all of them.
     
The opinion poll also asked how the respondents would vote in a possible second round. When Halonen and Niinistö were paired, Halonen was backed by 71 percent. Her support was 68 percent against Prime Minister Vanhanen.
      In fact, many Centre Party voters named Halonen as their candidate even when Vanhanen was against her in the second round, and the same fate was suffered by Niinistö at the hands of National Coalition voters.
      In the first round, party voters are more loyal: 51 percent of National Coalition voters would choose Niinistö in the first round, and 55% of Centre voters would choose Vanhanen.
      Thus far President Halonen has given no indication of whether she will be seeking a second six-year term. Her presidency has been marked from the outset by phenomenally high approval ratings.


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Helsingin Sanomat Gallup: Halonen would win Presidential election comfortably if vote were held now (1.12.2003)

Helsingin Sanomat