PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SUNDAY 20:00: Sauli Niinistö holds comfortable lead on advance votes - Niinistö will become Finland's 12th President of the Republic
Turnout falls away to around 69%, lowest figure since 1950
Sauli Niinistö (left) and Pekka Haavisto
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With the polls closed at 20:00 and results from advance voting already in, Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party) looks like becoming Finland's 12th President of the Republic, as he enjoys a lead of 65.4% to the 34.6% for Pekka Haavisto (Greens).
Even if there is every likelihood that Haavisto will narrow the gap somewhat in votes cast on the day, just as he did in the first round, an upset is thought to be unlikely.
A total of 1,526,324 voters (36.6% of those eligible) cast their ballot in advance, with women outnumbering men by around 200,000.
This is of itself quite remarkable, for whilst females outnumber males in the entire Finnish electorate, they do so by an appreciably smaller margin of around 120,000.
Since earlier polls had shown Haavisto drawing a larger share of the female vote than among male voters, the expectation might have been for him to score rather higher than he has.
By the same token, Haavisto improved in the first round from 14.8% of the advance vote to an eventual tally of 18.8%, while Niinistö's share went down from 40.1% to 37.0%.
Now we wait to see what happens as votes come in from election day itself, on a day when the weather - extremely cold throughout the country - may also have played a part in the outcome.
The advance votes left Niinistö in a comfortable lead in all constituencies with the exception of the Åland Islands, and in Helsinki there was relatively little to choose between the two candidates.
However, in the Vaasa constituency and in Savo and Kymi the gap was appreciably larger than the average for the whole country, indicating that "orphaned" supporters of Paavo Väyrynen (Centre Party) and Timo Soini (Finns Party) had gone behind Niiinistö rather than Haavisto.
To some extent this was anticipated, for whilst voters in these parts felt little sympathy with either candidate, Niinistö was the more conservative choice and Haavisto's sexual orientation probably also weighed against him.
In the case of Helsinki, analysts have predicted that it could be that Haavisto will actually overhaul Niinistö by night's end, but it will not affect the overall outcome.
At 20:40 the Finnish Broadcasting Company issued its prediction for the result, with Niinistö anticipated to win by a margin of 62.9% to 37.1%, which would make it one of the more one-sided contests in recent memory.
Shortly after this announcement, it became clear - with around 80% of votes counted - that Sauli Niinistö had gathered more than 50% of the votes cast in advance and on the day, rendering him the de facto winner and Finland's next President.
Niinistö will be sworn in to replace outgoing President Tarja Halonen at the beginning of March, and will serve for a six-year term.
First impressions were that the total turnout was not very high, and will fall around four points short of the 72.8% in the first round.
This might be attributed both to climatic factors and also the fact that - as noted above - there were large swathes of the country where neither of the two run-off candidates met with great enthusiasm from voters.
Six years ago, when Niinistö was defeated in the second round by the incumbent Tarja Halonen, the voting percentage rose from 73.9% in the first round to reach 77.2%.
If the figure settles at around 69%, it will mean that just one-third of the population went to vote on election day, and the overall turnout will be lower than in any presidential contest since 1950.
This in turn will give the winner Niinistö (and for that matter the defeated Haavisto) pause for thought over campaign comments about wishing to be "a president for the entire country".
Finland is without doubt divided on geographic and demographic lines, with the relatively prosperous and urban south firmly behind the two finalists, but large areas of the disadvantaged north and east of Finland have very different aspirations and favourites, and the next elections to be held - municipal elections in October - are likely to highlight this yawning gap.
We shall return with the full results when they are in.
More on this subject:
 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Sauli Niinistö, 63, is Finland's 12th President, after defeating Pekka Haavisto by a wide margin of 62.6% to 37.4%
Helsingin Sanomat
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