Paavo Lipponen and the unbearable familiarity of second place

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By Unto Hämäläinen
     
      The feeling is like being in church. People dressed in black sit quietly in their seats, staring at the decorated podium where a man, speaking at a slow place, repeats words heard many times before. From time to time he reads quotes: this is what is written in The Word.
      The ecclesiastical atmosphere evaporates at the end of the sermon; the walls of the large auditorium of the University of Helsinki echo with the sound. The Speaker of Parliament, Paavo Lipponen, descends from the podium, but stays up front to answer questions on the European Union, NATO, and Russia.
     
All of the questions are polite. Nobody makes even accidental reference to the big news item - the one that everyone is thinking about. On the morning of the same day Bertie Ahern, the Prime Minister of Ireland, the country which holds the rotating EU Presidency, was in Helsinki to meet with President Tarja Halonen and Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen.
      Ahern is an important man, a king-maker. He is preparing for the EU summit at the end of June, where a new President for the European Commission is to be chosen.
      In the morning Vanhanen told Ahern that Finland is proposing that Lipponen be named to the post.
      There are several hundred listeners - all of them influential and knowledgeable people. A closer look reveals that nearly all of them are wearing a a small golden lapel pin. It is no ordinary trinket: it shows that the bearer has taken part in a national defence course. For more than 40 years the Finnish Defence Forces have trained the elite of the nation in case war would break out. In such a situation, those taking the course - politicians, military officers, business figures, professors, newspaper editors, and many others - would be given demanding tasks to safeguard the country.
     
At the end of the event a small group of familiar faces gather around Lipponen. Some of them appear to be fellow participants of course number 63 held 25 years ago. Memories are rekindled at these reunions. Once a year a meeting of all former participants is held, where the speaker is always a respected fellow member, such as Mauno Koivisto from course number 13, Martti Ahtisaari from course 93, or Tarja Halonen from course 60.
      This evening, May 6, is Lipponen’s turn to address the gathering. He completes his presentation carefully, shakes hands, talks to people, and is the last to leave the auditorium. Many wish him luck, and Lipponen thanks them. Luck is something that he will need in what is the most difficult project of his dazzling political career so far. He wants to be the number-one man in Europe.
     
The Commission Presidency is important for all of Finland. The last time that a Finn was in line for such an important job was in 1971 when Max Jakobson sought the post of Secretary General of the United Nations. The bid failed because it was opposed by the Soviet Union. At least that obstacle no longer exists.
      Paavo Lipponen knows that he cannot give up the struggle. During his 40-year career he has lost an unbelievable number of times - usually quite narrowly.
     
Lipponen joined the Social Democratic Party in 1964. It was the right time for such a move, because the party was just rising to power, and needed young and gifted people within its ranks. They were offered quick access to powerful positions. They became Members of Parliament, ministers, or top-ranking civil servants.
      Lipponen did not get a quick rise. After joining the party it took 20 years before he became a Member of Parliament, and ten more to reach the very top - the positions of chairman of the Social Democratic Party and Prime Minister.
      He can certainly not be faulted for any lack of trying. Lipponen worked hard as a party functionary, specialising in international politics, and was a faithful party workhorse in other ways as well.
      Why was he not acceptable earlier?
      One impediment was a rift that emerged between himself and the party’s strong man Kalevi Sorsa. The background of the falling-out is not known, but Sorsa blocked many of Lipponen’s efforts - or at least Sorsa’s suspicions were skilfully used against Lipponen.
      The most difficult phase was the spring of 1987 when Sorsa collected the votes cast by Helsinki’s Social Democrats so cannily that he first pushed Lipponen out of Parliament, and then kept him from being named SDP party secretary.
     
The roles did not change until the spring of 1993, when Lipponen defeated Sorsa favourite Antti Kalliomäki in the election for party chairman. Slightly before that, Sorsa had been defeated in the Social Democratic primary by Martti Ahtisaari and lost the opportunity to compete for the Presidency.
      Why did Lipponen finally win?
      Behind the event is a long process. As a young man Lipponen was politically quite far to the left, and looked at integration with Western Europe with suspicion. In 1972 - 1973 the left fringe of the SDP found itself in a difficult position: should it support or oppose a free trade agreement with the European Economic Community - the present European Union?
      The issue split the young intellectuals of the SDP into two camps. Opponents included Tarja Halonen, Erkki Liikanen, Jacob Söderman, and Erkki Tuomioja.
     
Lipponen made a different choice. He was such a staunch supporter of the treaty, and of the market economy, that he was soon seen to be part of the right wing of the Social Democratic Party. At the time those with such a label were not given important roles in the party. It was not until the late 1980s that the changes that had begun in Europe worked to Lipponen’s advantage.
      Paavo Lipponen was among the very first to start pushing Finland in the direction of the European Community. He was rebuffed at first, but by 1993 the situation had changed completely. Finland had already applied for membership, and it was known that the membership treaty would be put to a referendum the following year. In the SDP people were asking which candidate for the party’s leadership would be the most credible in advance of the membership referendum, and the most appropriate as the future Prime Minister of EU-member Finland.
      The description fit Lipponen, and so he was finally chosen.
     
The European Union became the most important project - or mission - of Paavo Lipponen’s long eight-year period as Prime Minister. It was under his leadership that Finland moved from the periphery of Western Europe into its inner circle. The most important decision was joining the Economic and Monetary Union EMU in the spring of 1998. The markka was exchanged for the euro at the beginning of 2002.
      At home Lipponen’s first government had to make difficult cost-cutting decisions. Lipponen’s career as Prime Minister was put to the test in the elections of the spring of 1999, but he succeeded in overcoming Centre Party leader Esko Aho and was granted a second term.
      Finland’s six-month EU Presidency in the second half of 1999 was the most magnificent time of Lipponen’s career. The Finnish Prime Minister basked in the European limelight, and a powerful phase of development was underway in the EU. Preparations were being made for the introduction of the euro, and for the eastward expansion of the Union. At the Helsinki summit, a decision was made on the establishment of the EU’s own crisis management forces.
      The EU was becoming a great power - under Finnish leadership. A moment before Finland had been only nominally a part of the West European community.
     
The period immediately after the Finnish EU Presidency was the first time that speculation emerged that Lipponen might seek important tasks within the EU.
      The decisive impetus came from the result of the last Parliamentary elections. Lipponen sought the post of Prime Minister for a third time, but narrowly lost it to the Centre Party’s Anneli Jäätteenmäki.
     
Now, just over a year after Lipponen’s latest defeat, the sequence of events seems to be quite clear: Lipponen was the most curious victim of the Iraq war started by President George W. Bush. Jäätteenmäki succeeded in turning a sufficient number of Finnish minds against him. Lipponen got some of the anger that the Finnish people felt toward Bush and his war plans.
      Lipponen has had to endure setbacks during his long career, prompted by both his own people and others. Of all of his disappointments so far, the loss of the post of Prime Minister was probably the heaviest - or at least he has not managed to recover from it as quickly as before. Convincing evidence of this could be seen in the columns he wrote in the newspaper Turun Sanomat and the weekly magazine Apu, which make for quite bizarre reading. It is as if they had been written by two different Lipponens.
      Usually the text is calm and controlled. However, if the subject touches even tangentially upon the Iraq mess, the style of the articles has been different: bitter and angry. A year after the elections he still used the expression "stinking carcass" to describe the campaign tactics of the Centre Party.
      Now it looks like Lipponen has managed to put it all behind him. Having a new objective has been good for him.
      Besides, Lipponen now needs all the support that he can get from his own country.
     
When the heads of state of the members of the EU gather to choose a President for the European Commission, Lipponen’s most important supporters will be Halonen, Vanhanen, and Tuomioja.
      There is one more oddity in Lipponen’s career: his supporters are his former opponents. Lipponen has fought against the Centre Party ever since the days of Kekkonen. Lipponen has often said what a great impression the transition from Kekkonen to Mauno Koivisto was for him in 1981. Lipponen followed it closely, because he was the secretary of Prime Minister Koivisto at the time.
      Lipponen has competed against Halonen and Tuomioja within the SDP. They have been rivals for the votes of Helsinki residents, and sought the Party leadership at the same time. They have also had policy differences that have been evident recently in the NATO debate.
      On the other hand, Lipponen chose Halonen as Foreign Minister in his first government, giving her preference over all of the favourites. Without holding the post of Foreign Minister, it would have been very unlikely for Halonen to have been elected President. And at the end of May 2004, Lipponen rushed to be the first to ask Halonen to run for a second term.
     
The struggle over top positions in the European Commission resembles shadow boxing. It is necessary to reach for the top, but this must be done in a subtle manner, as excessive campaigning can lead to defeat.
      Ever since last autumn Lipponen has had speaking arrangements around Europe. A speech in Prague, Strasbourg, Brussels, London, or even Tallinn is always an election speech targeting the government of the host country, no matter what the topic.
      Appearances here in Finland are also important. Embassies operating in Helsinki make reports on what candidates do and say. Lipponen always has good things to say about NATO while he is in Finland: those speeches are aimed at the EU’s NATO members.
     
But does Lipponen have a real chance to ascend to the leadership of the Commission?
      Before the summit, it looks as though Lipponen is losing the fight over the Presidency. The choice will be made by the European Council, which comprises the leaders of the 25 member states, but in practice the decision will be made in joint preparations involving the Presidency-holder Ireland and key member states, such as Germany, France, and the UK.
      The decisive negotiations will be held sometime after the European Parliament elections, a day or two before the summit. The election result will have an effect on the choice, because the Commission President will have to win the approval of the European Parliament. Election forecasts predict a strong position in the European Parliament for parties of the right, which will probably want to show their strength: the successor of the leftist Romano Prodi would have to be a conservative.
      There are about ten candidates: at least three Commissioners, the prime ministers of Belgium, Luxembourg, and Austria, as well as the Irish speaker of the European Parliament.
     
The important financial journal, The Economist, published an ante-post form assessment of candidates at the end of May. The magazine wrote that Lipponen’s strong points include his "solid" nature and the fact that he is Scandinavian. The plus in this was that since Prodi came from a large southern country, a new President should hail from somewhere smaller and in the north. Lipponen's handicaps were that he was "dull" and that he speaks too slowly. The magazine put him in seventh place in the list of runners and riders, and estimated his odds at 15 to 1.
      It is true that Lipponen would have wanted a prestigious supporter. His most stinging defeat came in the winter, when Sweden’s Prime Minister Göran Persson said that Sweden feels that a civil servant should be chosen to the Commission Presidency. Sweden reportedly has poor experiences with politicians in the post.
     
Persson emphasised at the time that he has nothing personal against Lipponen, and that the preference for a civil servant is a question of principle for Sweden.
      This kind of reasoning is typical for relations between states. When someone lacks the nerve to reveal his or her true thoughts, the emphasis is on the principle of the issue.
      How would it feel if Persson had said: "I don’t like the policy of Finland and Lipponen in the EU. I am angry that Finland has the euro and Sweden does not. I do not particularly appreciate Lipponen, even though we are both Social Democrats. I also feel that he does not care for me very much"?
      Such direct speech is not considered acceptable. However, diplomats, researchers, politicians, and journalists who monitor relations between neighbouring countries know that this is roughly how things really stand.
      Here is one more paradox linked with Lipponen’s career. He has always been an outspoken supporter of cooperation between Finland and Sweden. In previous years - before Persson - he was the one with the best ties with Sweden’s Social Democrats.
     
Paavo Lipponen has said that he is only seeking the post of Commission President, because that is the only post that is available. This is his official view.
      In reality Lipponen is available for all key EU posts. If he is not chosen as the President of the Commission, Finland will put Lipponen forward for the two posts of Vice President - as a so-called Super-Commissioner. If that does not succeed, Lipponen will be proposed as the Secretary-General of the Council of Europe.
      The Presidency of the Commission is a long shot, but he has real chances for the other posts.
      Top positions at the EU are filled by representatives of large member states, the small old member states, and the large new member states. They need to be the kinds of representatives of the right, liberals, or moderate socialists who get along with each other.
      In this game Lipponen has a chance. He can be a smallest common denominator, who could win support from Social Democratic leaders, such as Germany’s Gerhard Schröder and Britain’s Tony Blair, but he also would not be an impossible choice for France’s conservative Jaques Chirac.
      One of Lipponen’s strong points is his lengthy cooperation with conservatives - eight years in the same government. No other Social Democrat has such a record.
     
In the new 25-member EU, all top positions on the Commission are very important. The President of the Commission can no longer manage alone, because the new member states require special care, the economic cooperation of the EU needs to be intensified, and there are moves under way to turn the EU into a credible actor in world politics. Any post in the EU leadership would be a tremendous victory for Lipponen.
      If Lipponen were to get an EU post, he would have to give up all of his jobs at home. Parliament would get a new Speaker, and his party would need a new Chairman, perhaps already before the municipal elections in October.
     
If Lipponen loses his race for the top jobs, he will have to decide immediately if he should make himself available as an ordinary Commissioner - that is, for the post that Finland is automatically entitled to. That would also be a difficult decision. The SDP hopes that Lipponen would agree to be a candidate, because otherwise the Centre Party could take the post. The Centre would have a man ready for the position: Dr. Olli Rehn, the former cabinet chief of EU Commissioner Erkki Liikanen and current aide to Prime Minister Vanhanen.
      If Lipponen does not get any EU post, he can remain in the SDP leadership until next year’s party congress, and as Speaker of Parliament until the spring of 2007. Then Lipponen will have reached the official retirement age, which means that it is likely that he will make room for a younger person - possibly his wife Päivi Lipponen.
      Naturally, there is one other possibility. If President Halonen were to confound expectations and not seek re-election in 2006, Lipponen could run for President.
      Paavo Lipponen has turned down the honour on many occasions, but what if his country were to call him one more time?
     
Helsingin Sanomat Kuukausiliite (monthly supplement) / First published in print 5.6.2004


Previously in HS International Edition:
  Paavo Lipponen heads visit of Nordic and Baltic Speakers of Parliament to Washington (4.6.2004)
  Lipponen wants a job with a mission (21.5.2004)
  Race for European Commission President intensifies; Lipponen’s chances decline (4.5.2004)
  Commission President Romano Prodi wants more efficient EU in HS interview (3.5.2004)
  Lipponen still interested in post of EU Commission President (22.3.2004)

UNTO HÄMÄLÄINEN / Helsingin Sanomat
unto.hamalainen@hs.fi